{"rows":[{"id":"32c54be3-4067-4128-9f3b-9cfc8a36d2cd-spread","game":"Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers","time":"09/13 1:00 PM ET","kickoffDate":"09/13","kickoffTime":"1:00 PM","commenceTime":"2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z","market":"Spread","open":"+3","best":"+6","book":"BetRivers","bookKey":"betrivers","bestJuice":"-108","bestJuiceHome":"-113","kei":"-2.8","modelKei":"-2.7","week":1,"seasonType":"REG","linesAsOf":"2026-09-12T06:59:57+00:00","publishTag":"PASS","actionLabel":"PASS","decision":{"market":"spread","action_label":"PASS","edge_magnitude":3.21,"model_confidence":{"score":0.5,"band":"LOW","factors":{"scheme_stable":true,"injury_clear":true,"weather_clear":true,"qb_clear":false,"conflicting_inputs":false,"liquidity_ok":true,"historical_fit":null},"unresolved_flags":["qb_unresolved"]},"cover_prob":null,"play_to":{"side_or_total":"ATL +6","play_to":5,"lean_to":4.5,"pass_from":4,"fair_line":-2.79,"market_line":-6,"edge_points":3.21,"notes":"Play ATL to +5; lean +4.5; pass +4 or worse"},"market_confirmation":{"model_fair":-2.79,"opening":-3,"current":-6,"closing":null,"confirms_thesis":false,"weakens_thesis":true,"note":"Market moved away from model fair — weakens thesis; 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lean to 41; pass 41.5+"},"market_confirmation":{"model_fair":43.15,"opening":41.5,"current":41,"closing":null,"confirms_thesis":false,"weakens_thesis":true,"note":"Market moved away from model fair — weakens thesis; fair unchanged."},"model_warning":false,"key_number_cross":false,"price_still_available":false,"numerical_edge":true,"confidence_ok":false,"reason":"edge_with_low_confidence","week":1,"week_regime":"early","fair_line":43.15,"market_line":41},"edgeMagnitude":2.1499999999999986,"modelConfidenceScore":0.5,"modelConfidenceBand":"LOW","modelConfidenceTierConstant":false,"playToNotes":"Play Over 40.5 or better; lean to 41; pass 41.5+","playToPlay":40.5,"playToLean":41,"playToPass":41.5,"fairLine":43.15,"decisionMarketLine":41,"keyNumberCross":false,"weekRegime":"early","awayAbbr":"ATL","homeAbbr":"PIT","homeWinProb":0.5763,"awayWinProb":0.4237,"keiSpreadHome":-2.79,"marketSpreadHome":-6,"keiTotal":43.15,"marketTotal":41,"gamesPlayedAway":0,"gamesPlayedHome":0,"period":"fg","oddsMarketKey":"totals","neutralSite":false,"hfaPoints":1.05,"paceAway":0.983,"paceHome":0.925,"matchupOverview":"Bottom line\nFalcons at Steelers: KEI total 43.1 vs market 41.0 — over.\n\nWhat matters\n• Total: KEI 43.1 vs market 41.0 · over\n• Pace proxy Falcons 0.98 / Steelers 0.93 → slower pace\n• Spread: KEI -2.8 vs market -6.0 (3.2 pt gap · Falcons)\n\nWhat flips\nA weather or pace confirmation is the only green light for the over.\n\nEarly-season uncertainty: no trailing sample yet — this is structure + price only.","matchupVoice":"totals","statDrop":{"slots":[{"id":"power","label":"Power","value":"KEI Falcons -0.9 / Steelers +0.9 (Δ +1.8)","requiredOk":true},{"id":"spread","label":"Spread","value":"Mkt -6.0 · KEI -2.8"},{"id":"total","label":"Total","value":"Mkt 41.0 · KEI 43.1"},{"id":"impliedWp","label":"Implied WP","value":"Falcons 42% / Steelers 58%"},{"id":"site","label":"Site","value":"Home / Road · HFA 1.05 pts"},{"id":"rest","label":"Rest","value":"Falcons Season open / Steelers Season open"},{"id":"pace","label":"Pace","value":"Falcons 0.98 / Steelers 0.93"},{"id":"structural","label":"Tags","value":"—"}],"hasPower":true},"totalCompareEligible":true,"totalIdentityReason":"ok"},{"id":"48507595-9f44-4856-baba-826703d0b903-spread","game":"Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans","time":"09/13 1:00 PM ET","kickoffDate":"09/13","kickoffTime":"1:00 PM","commenceTime":"2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z","market":"Spread","open":"-1.5","best":"-1","book":"BetOnline","bookKey":"betonlineag","bestJuice":"-120","bestJuiceHome":"+100","kei":"+0.9","modelKei":"-1.6","week":1,"seasonType":"REG","linesAsOf":"2026-09-12T06:59:57+00:00","publishTag":"PASS","actionLabel":"PASS","decision":{"market":"spread","action_label":"PASS","edge_magnitude":0.62,"model_confidence":{"score":0.47,"band":"LOW","factors":{"scheme_stable":true,"injury_clear":true,"weather_clear":true,"qb_clear":true,"conflicting_inputs":true,"liquidity_ok":true,"historical_fit":null},"unresolved_flags":["conflicting_inputs"]},"cover_prob":null,"play_to":null,"market_confirmation":{"model_fair":0.88,"opening":1.5,"current":1.5,"closing":null,"confirms_thesis":false,"weakens_thesis":false,"note":"Market movement is information only; 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fair line unchanged."},"model_warning":false,"key_number_cross":false,"price_still_available":false,"numerical_edge":false,"confidence_ok":true,"reason":"edge_below_week_threshold","week":1,"week_regime":"early","fair_line":-7.09,"market_line":-7},"edgeMagnitude":0.08999999999999986,"modelConfidenceScore":0.72,"modelConfidenceBand":"MEDIUM","modelConfidenceTierConstant":true,"fairLine":-7.09,"decisionMarketLine":-7,"keyNumberCross":false,"weekRegime":"early","awayAbbr":"NO","homeAbbr":"DET","homeWinProb":0.6803,"awayWinProb":0.3197,"keiSpreadHome":-7.09,"marketSpreadHome":-7,"keiTotal":46.76,"marketTotal":49.5,"gamesPlayedAway":0,"gamesPlayedHome":0,"period":"fg","oddsMarketKey":"spreads","neutralSite":false,"hfaPoints":1.05,"paceAway":1.009,"paceHome":0.996,"structuralTagAway":"Elite D index","structuralTagHome":"Pressure D","matchupOverview":"Bottom line\nSaints at Lions: KEI -7.1 sits on top of market -7.0 — pass the forced lean.\n\nWhat matters\n• Spread: KEI -7.1 ≈ market -7.0 — no forced lean\n• Total: KEI 46.8 vs market 49.5 · under\n• Implied WP Saints 32% / Lions 68%\n\nWhat flips\nWatch for a book to hang a soft alternate — that is the only market edge left.\n\nEarly-season uncertainty: no trailing sample yet — this is structure + price only.","matchupVoice":"market","statDrop":{"slots":[{"id":"power","label":"Power","value":"KEI Saints -3.0 / Lions +3.0 (Δ +6.0)","requiredOk":true},{"id":"spread","label":"Spread","value":"Mkt -7.0 · KEI -7.1"},{"id":"total","label":"Total","value":"Mkt 49.5 · KEI 46.8"},{"id":"impliedWp","label":"Implied WP","value":"Saints 32% / Lions 68%"},{"id":"site","label":"Site","value":"Home / Road · HFA 1.05 pts"},{"id":"rest","label":"Rest","value":"Saints Season open / Lions Season open"},{"id":"pace","label":"Pace","value":"Saints 1.01 / Lions 1.00"},{"id":"structural","label":"Tags","value":"Saints Elite D index · Lions Pressure D"}],"hasPower":true}},{"id":"896d5f5f-8497-4ee9-abd2-56f9280683f1-total","game":"New Orleans Saints @ Detroit Lions","time":"09/13 1:00 PM ET","kickoffDate":"09/13","kickoffTime":"1:00 PM","commenceTime":"2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z","market":"Total","modelPeriod":"fg","open":"49.5","best":"50","book":"Bovada","bookKey":"bovada","bestJuice":"-105","bestJuiceHome":"-115","kei":"46.8","modelKei":"41.8","week":1,"seasonType":"REG","linesAsOf":"2026-09-12T06:59:57+00:00","publishTag":"LEAN","actionLabel":"LEAN","decision":{"market":"total","action_label":"LEAN","edge_magnitude":2.74,"model_confidence":{"score":0.72,"band":"MEDIUM","factors":{"scheme_stable":true,"injury_clear":true,"weather_clear":true,"qb_clear":true,"conflicting_inputs":false,"liquidity_ok":true,"historical_fit":null},"unresolved_flags":[]},"cover_prob":null,"play_to":{"side_or_total":"Under 49.5","play_to":49.5,"lean_to":49,"pass_from":48.5,"fair_line":46.76,"market_line":49.5,"edge_points":2.74,"notes":"Play Under 49.5 or better; lean to 49; pass 48.5 or lower"},"market_confirmation":{"model_fair":46.76,"opening":49.5,"current":49.5,"closing":null,"confirms_thesis":false,"weakens_thesis":false,"note":"Market movement is information only; fair line unchanged."},"model_warning":false,"key_number_cross":true,"price_still_available":true,"numerical_edge":true,"confidence_ok":true,"reason":"mild_edge_pass","week":1,"week_regime":"early","fair_line":46.76,"market_line":49.5},"edgeMagnitude":2.740000000000002,"modelConfidenceScore":0.72,"modelConfidenceBand":"MEDIUM","modelConfidenceTierConstant":true,"playToNotes":"Play Under 49.5 or better; lean to 49; pass 48.5 or lower","playToPlay":49.5,"playToLean":49,"playToPass":48.5,"fairLine":46.76,"decisionMarketLine":49.5,"keyNumberCross":true,"weekRegime":"early","awayAbbr":"NO","homeAbbr":"DET","homeWinProb":0.6803,"awayWinProb":0.3197,"keiSpreadHome":-7.09,"marketSpreadHome":-7,"keiTotal":46.76,"marketTotal":49.5,"gamesPlayedAway":0,"gamesPlayedHome":0,"period":"fg","oddsMarketKey":"totals","neutralSite":false,"hfaPoints":1.05,"paceAway":1.009,"paceHome":0.996,"structuralTagAway":"Elite D index","structuralTagHome":"Pressure D","matchupOverview":"Bottom line\nSaints at Lions: KEI -7.1 sits on top of market -7.0 — pass the forced lean.\n\nWhat matters\n• Spread: KEI -7.1 ≈ market -7.0 — no forced lean\n• Total: KEI 46.8 vs market 49.5 · under\n• Implied WP Saints 32% / Lions 68%\n\nWhat flips\nWatch for a book to hang a soft alternate — that is the only market edge left.\n\nEarly-season uncertainty: no trailing sample yet — this is structure + price only.","matchupVoice":"market","statDrop":{"slots":[{"id":"power","label":"Power","value":"KEI Saints -3.0 / Lions +3.0 (Δ +6.0)","requiredOk":true},{"id":"spread","label":"Spread","value":"Mkt -7.0 · KEI -7.1"},{"id":"total","label":"Total","value":"Mkt 49.5 · KEI 46.8"},{"id":"impliedWp","label":"Implied WP","value":"Saints 32% / Lions 68%"},{"id":"site","label":"Site","value":"Home / Road · HFA 1.05 pts"},{"id":"rest","label":"Rest","value":"Saints Season open / Lions Season open"},{"id":"pace","label":"Pace","value":"Saints 1.01 / Lions 1.00"},{"id":"structural","label":"Tags","value":"Saints Elite D index · Lions Pressure D"}],"hasPower":true},"totalCompareEligible":true,"totalIdentityReason":"ok"},{"id":"9c7d0207-b6da-4aa8-b1d7-e4e78fec551f-spread","game":"Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers","time":"09/13 1:00 PM ET","kickoffDate":"09/13","kickoffTime":"1:00 PM","commenceTime":"2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z","market":"Spread","open":"-2.5","best":"-3","book":"Bovada","bookKey":"bovada","bestJuice":"-110","bestJuiceHome":"-110","kei":"+2.1","modelKei":"+0.7","week":1,"seasonType":"REG","linesAsOf":"2026-09-12T06:59:57+00:00","publishTag":"PASS","actionLabel":"PASS","decision":{"market":"spread","action_label":"PASS","edge_magnitude":0.95,"model_confidence":{"score":0.72,"band":"MEDIUM","factors":{"scheme_stable":true,"injury_clear":true,"weather_clear":true,"qb_clear":true,"conflicting_inputs":false,"liquidity_ok":true,"historical_fit":null},"unresolved_flags":[]},"cover_prob":null,"play_to":null,"market_confirmation":{"model_fair":2.05,"opening":2.5,"current":3,"closing":null,"confirms_thesis":false,"weakens_thesis":true,"note":"Market moved away from model fair — weakens thesis; 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a steamed favorite kills the dog thesis.\n\nEarly-season uncertainty: no trailing sample yet — this is structure + price only.","matchupVoice":"dog","statDrop":{"slots":[{"id":"power","label":"Power","value":"KEI Bears +1.5 / Panthers -1.5 (Δ -3.0)","requiredOk":true},{"id":"spread","label":"Spread","value":"Mkt +3.0 · KEI +2.0"},{"id":"total","label":"Total","value":"Mkt 47.0 · KEI 45.5"},{"id":"impliedWp","label":"Implied WP","value":"Bears 55% / Panthers 45%"},{"id":"site","label":"Site","value":"Home / Road · HFA 1.05 pts"},{"id":"rest","label":"Rest","value":"Bears Season open / Panthers Season open"},{"id":"pace","label":"Pace","value":"Bears 1.06 / Panthers 0.95"},{"id":"structural","label":"Tags","value":"Bears — · Panthers Soft O index"}],"hasPower":true}},{"id":"9c7d0207-b6da-4aa8-b1d7-e4e78fec551f-total","game":"Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers","time":"09/13 1:00 PM ET","kickoffDate":"09/13","kickoffTime":"1:00 PM","commenceTime":"2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z","market":"Total","modelPeriod":"fg","open":"45.5","best":"47.5","book":"FanDuel","bookKey":"fanduel","bestJuice":"-102","bestJuiceHome":"-120","kei":"45.5","modelKei":"44.3","week":1,"seasonType":"REG","linesAsOf":"2026-09-12T06:59:57+00:00","publishTag":"PASS","actionLabel":"PASS","decision":{"market":"total","action_label":"PASS","edge_magnitude":1.47,"model_confidence":{"score":0.72,"band":"MEDIUM","factors":{"scheme_stable":true,"injury_clear":true,"weather_clear":true,"qb_clear":true,"conflicting_inputs":false,"liquidity_ok":true,"historical_fit":null},"unresolved_flags":[]},"cover_prob":null,"play_to":null,"market_confirmation":{"model_fair":45.53,"opening":45.5,"current":47,"closing":null,"confirms_thesis":true,"weakens_thesis":false,"note":"Market moved toward model fair — confirms thesis; fair unchanged."},"model_warning":false,"key_number_cross":false,"price_still_available":false,"numerical_edge":false,"confidence_ok":true,"reason":"edge_below_total_threshold","week":1,"week_regime":"early","fair_line":45.53,"market_line":47},"edgeMagnitude":1.4699999999999989,"modelConfidenceScore":0.72,"modelConfidenceBand":"MEDIUM","modelConfidenceTierConstant":true,"fairLine":45.53,"decisionMarketLine":47,"keyNumberCross":false,"weekRegime":"early","awayAbbr":"CHI","homeAbbr":"CAR","homeWinProb":0.453,"awayWinProb":0.547,"keiSpreadHome":2.05,"marketSpreadHome":3,"keiTotal":45.53,"marketTotal":47,"gamesPlayedAway":0,"gamesPlayedHome":0,"period":"fg","oddsMarketKey":"totals","neutralSite":false,"hfaPoints":1.05,"paceAway":1.065,"paceHome":0.949,"structuralTagHome":"Soft O index","matchupOverview":"Bottom line\nBears at Panthers: dog Panthers is priced fairly vs KEI — no gift on the plus side.\n\nWhat matters\n• Spread: KEI +2.0 ≈ market +3.0 — no forced lean\n• Implied WP Bears 55% / Panthers 45%\n• KEI power gap -3.0 pts toward Bears\n• Rest: season open — weight travel/neutral and roster construction, not early-week narratives\n\nWhat flips\nLive only if the plus-number is still up; a steamed favorite kills the dog thesis.\n\nEarly-season uncertainty: no trailing sample yet — this is structure + price only.","matchupVoice":"dog","statDrop":{"slots":[{"id":"power","label":"Power","value":"KEI Bears +1.5 / Panthers -1.5 (Δ -3.0)","requiredOk":true},{"id":"spread","label":"Spread","value":"Mkt +3.0 · KEI +2.0"},{"id":"total","label":"Total","value":"Mkt 47.0 · KEI 45.5"},{"id":"impliedWp","label":"Implied WP","value":"Bears 55% / Panthers 45%"},{"id":"site","label":"Site","value":"Home / Road · HFA 1.05 pts"},{"id":"rest","label":"Rest","value":"Bears Season open / Panthers Season open"},{"id":"pace","label":"Pace","value":"Bears 1.06 / Panthers 0.95"},{"id":"structural","label":"Tags","value":"Bears — · Panthers Soft O index"}],"hasPower":true},"totalCompareEligible":true,"totalIdentityReason":"ok"},{"id":"a7d7c0e8-abf8-44df-a445-200e2c1640ea-spread","game":"Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts","time":"09/13 1:00 PM ET","kickoffDate":"09/13","kickoffTime":"1:00 PM","commenceTime":"2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z","market":"Spread","open":"-3.5","best":"-3","book":"Caesars","bookKey":"williamhill_us","bestJuice":"-118","bestJuiceHome":"-102","kei":"+1.8","modelKei":"+1.1","week":1,"seasonType":"REG","linesAsOf":"2026-09-12T06:59:57+00:00","publishTag":"LEAN","actionLabel":"LEAN","decision":{"market":"spread","action_label":"LEAN","edge_magnitude":1.74,"model_confidence":{"score":0.72,"band":"MEDIUM","factors":{"scheme_stable":true,"injury_clear":true,"weather_clear":true,"qb_clear":true,"conflicting_inputs":false,"liquidity_ok":true,"historical_fit":null},"unresolved_flags":[]},"cover_prob":null,"play_to":{"side_or_total":"IND +3.5","play_to":4,"lean_to":3.5,"pass_from":3,"fair_line":1.76,"market_line":3.5,"edge_points":1.74,"notes":"Play IND to +4; lean +3.5; pass +3 or worse"},"market_confirmation":{"model_fair":1.76,"opening":3.5,"current":3.5,"closing":null,"confirms_thesis":false,"weakens_thesis":false,"note":"Market movement is information only; fair line unchanged."},"model_warning":false,"key_number_cross":true,"price_still_available":false,"numerical_edge":true,"confidence_ok":true,"reason":"mild_edge_pass|past_play_to","week":1,"week_regime":"early","fair_line":1.76,"market_line":3.5},"edgeMagnitude":1.74,"modelConfidenceScore":0.72,"modelConfidenceBand":"MEDIUM","modelConfidenceTierConstant":true,"playToNotes":"Play IND to +4; lean +3.5; pass +3 or worse","playToPlay":4,"playToLean":3.5,"playToPass":3,"fairLine":1.76,"decisionMarketLine":3.5,"keyNumberCross":true,"weekRegime":"early","awayAbbr":"BAL","homeAbbr":"IND","homeWinProb":0.4363,"awayWinProb":0.5637,"keiSpreadHome":1.76,"marketSpreadHome":3.5,"keiTotal":47.4,"marketTotal":48,"gamesPlayedAway":0,"gamesPlayedHome":0,"period":"fg","oddsMarketKey":"spreads","neutralSite":false,"hfaPoints":1.05,"paceAway":0.907,"paceHome":0.959,"structuralTagAway":"Run-lean O","structuralTagHome":"Elite O index","matchupOverview":"Bottom line\nRavens at Colts: Pace proxy Ravens 0.91 / Colts 0.96 — slower pace; KEI total 47.4 vs market 48.0.\n\nWhat matters\n• Pace proxy Ravens 0.91 / Colts 0.96 → slower pace\n• Total: KEI 47.4 ≈ market 48.0\n• Ravens tag: Run-lean O (prior efficiency — not in-season form)\n• Spread: KEI +1.8 vs market +3.5 (1.7 pt gap · Colts)\n\nWhat flips\nIf both offenses hit explosive pace, the total thesis beats the side thesis.\n\nEarly-season uncertainty: no trailing sample yet — this is structure + price only.","matchupVoice":"script_pace","statDrop":{"slots":[{"id":"power","label":"Power","value":"KEI Ravens +1.4 / Colts -1.4 (Δ -2.8)","requiredOk":true},{"id":"spread","label":"Spread","value":"Mkt +3.5 · KEI +1.8"},{"id":"total","label":"Total","value":"Mkt 48.0 · KEI 47.4"},{"id":"impliedWp","label":"Implied WP","value":"Ravens 56% / Colts 44%"},{"id":"site","label":"Site","value":"Home / Road · HFA 1.05 pts"},{"id":"rest","label":"Rest","value":"Ravens Season open / Colts Season open"},{"id":"pace","label":"Pace","value":"Ravens 0.91 / Colts 0.96"},{"id":"structural","label":"Tags","value":"Ravens Run-lean O · Colts Elite O index"}],"hasPower":true}},{"id":"a7d7c0e8-abf8-44df-a445-200e2c1640ea-total","game":"Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts","time":"09/13 1:00 PM ET","kickoffDate":"09/13","kickoffTime":"1:00 PM","commenceTime":"2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z","market":"Total","modelPeriod":"fg","open":"48.5","best":"48","book":"Bovada","bookKey":"bovada","bestJuice":"-105","bestJuiceHome":"-115","kei":"47.4","modelKei":"43.9","week":1,"seasonType":"REG","linesAsOf":"2026-09-12T06:59:57+00:00","publishTag":"PASS","actionLabel":"PASS","decision":{"market":"total","action_label":"PASS","edge_magnitude":0.6,"model_confidence":{"score":0.72,"band":"MEDIUM","factors":{"scheme_stable":true,"injury_clear":true,"weather_clear":true,"qb_clear":true,"conflicting_inputs":false,"liquidity_ok":true,"historical_fit":null},"unresolved_flags":[]},"cover_prob":null,"play_to":null,"market_confirmation":{"model_fair":47.4,"opening":48.5,"current":48,"closing":null,"confirms_thesis":true,"weakens_thesis":false,"note":"Market moved toward model fair — confirms thesis; fair unchanged."},"model_warning":false,"key_number_cross":false,"price_still_available":false,"numerical_edge":false,"confidence_ok":true,"reason":"edge_below_total_threshold","week":1,"week_regime":"early","fair_line":47.4,"market_line":48},"edgeMagnitude":0.6000000000000014,"modelConfidenceScore":0.72,"modelConfidenceBand":"MEDIUM","modelConfidenceTierConstant":true,"fairLine":47.4,"decisionMarketLine":48,"keyNumberCross":false,"weekRegime":"early","awayAbbr":"BAL","homeAbbr":"IND","homeWinProb":0.4363,"awayWinProb":0.5637,"keiSpreadHome":1.76,"marketSpreadHome":3.5,"keiTotal":47.4,"marketTotal":48,"gamesPlayedAway":0,"gamesPlayedHome":0,"period":"fg","oddsMarketKey":"totals","neutralSite":false,"hfaPoints":1.05,"paceAway":0.907,"paceHome":0.959,"structuralTagAway":"Run-lean O","structuralTagHome":"Elite O index","matchupOverview":"Bottom line\nRavens at Colts: Pace proxy Ravens 0.91 / Colts 0.96 — slower pace; KEI total 47.4 vs market 48.0.\n\nWhat matters\n• Pace proxy Ravens 0.91 / Colts 0.96 → slower pace\n• Total: KEI 47.4 ≈ market 48.0\n• Ravens tag: Run-lean O (prior efficiency — not in-season form)\n• Spread: KEI +1.8 vs market +3.5 (1.7 pt gap · Colts)\n\nWhat flips\nIf both offenses hit explosive pace, the total thesis beats the side thesis.\n\nEarly-season uncertainty: no trailing sample yet — this is structure + price only.","matchupVoice":"script_pace","statDrop":{"slots":[{"id":"power","label":"Power","value":"KEI Ravens +1.4 / Colts -1.4 (Δ -2.8)","requiredOk":true},{"id":"spread","label":"Spread","value":"Mkt +3.5 · KEI +1.8"},{"id":"total","label":"Total","value":"Mkt 48.0 · KEI 47.4"},{"id":"impliedWp","label":"Implied WP","value":"Ravens 56% / Colts 44%"},{"id":"site","label":"Site","value":"Home / Road · HFA 1.05 pts"},{"id":"rest","label":"Rest","value":"Ravens Season open / Colts Season open"},{"id":"pace","label":"Pace","value":"Ravens 0.91 / Colts 0.96"},{"id":"structural","label":"Tags","value":"Ravens Run-lean O · Colts Elite O index"}],"hasPower":true},"totalCompareEligible":true,"totalIdentityReason":"ok"},{"id":"a8bc9d10-85a6-4302-b30e-cf2de423d273-spread","game":"New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans","time":"09/13 1:00 PM ET","kickoffDate":"09/13","kickoffTime":"1:00 PM","commenceTime":"2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z","market":"Spread","open":"+2.5","best":"+1.5","book":"Caesars","bookKey":"williamhill_us","bestJuice":"-109","bestJuiceHome":"-109","kei":"-3","modelKei":"-3.4","week":1,"seasonType":"REG","linesAsOf":"2026-09-12T06:59:57+00:00","publishTag":"LEAN","actionLabel":"LEAN","decision":{"market":"spread","action_label":"LEAN","edge_magnitude":1.47,"model_confidence":{"score":0.72,"band":"MEDIUM","factors":{"scheme_stable":true,"injury_clear":true,"weather_clear":true,"qb_clear":true,"conflicting_inputs":false,"liquidity_ok":true,"historical_fit":null},"unresolved_flags":[]},"cover_prob":null,"play_to":{"side_or_total":"TEN -1.5","play_to":-0.5,"lean_to":-1,"pass_from":-1.5,"fair_line":-2.97,"market_line":-1.5,"edge_points":1.47,"notes":"Play TEN to -0.5; lean -1; pass -1.5 or worse"},"market_confirmation":{"model_fair":-2.97,"opening":-2.5,"current":-1.5,"closing":null,"confirms_thesis":false,"weakens_thesis":true,"note":"Market moved away from model fair — weakens thesis; fair unchanged."},"model_warning":false,"key_number_cross":false,"price_still_available":false,"numerical_edge":true,"confidence_ok":true,"reason":"mild_edge_pass|past_play_to","week":1,"week_regime":"early","fair_line":-2.97,"market_line":-1.5},"edgeMagnitude":1.4700000000000002,"modelConfidenceScore":0.72,"modelConfidenceBand":"MEDIUM","modelConfidenceTierConstant":true,"playToNotes":"Play TEN to -0.5; lean -1; pass -1.5 or worse","playToPlay":-0.5,"playToLean":-1,"playToPass":-1.5,"fairLine":-2.97,"decisionMarketLine":-1.5,"keyNumberCross":false,"weekRegime":"early","awayAbbr":"NYJ","homeAbbr":"TEN","homeWinProb":0.5777,"awayWinProb":0.4223,"keiSpreadHome":-2.97,"marketSpreadHome":-1.5,"keiTotal":41.23,"marketTotal":38.5,"gamesPlayedAway":0,"gamesPlayedHome":0,"period":"fg","oddsMarketKey":"spreads","neutralSite":false,"hfaPoints":1.05,"paceAway":0.957,"paceHome":0.944,"structuralTagAway":"Soft O index","structuralTagHome":"Soft O index","matchupOverview":"Bottom line\nJets at Titans: relative value sits with Titans against the board; size only if the price holds.\n\nWhat matters\n• Spread: KEI -3.0 vs market -1.5 (1.5 pt gap · Titans)\n• Implied WP Jets 42% / Titans 58%\n• KEI power gap +2.0 pts toward Titans\n• Rest: season open — weight travel/neutral and roster construction, not early-week narratives\n\nWhat flips\nLive only if the plus-number is still up; a steamed favorite kills the dog thesis.\n\nEarly-season uncertainty: no trailing sample yet — this is structure + price only.","matchupVoice":"dog","statDrop":{"slots":[{"id":"power","label":"Power","value":"KEI Jets -1.0 / Titans +1.0 (Δ +2.0)","requiredOk":true},{"id":"spread","label":"Spread","value":"Mkt -1.5 · KEI -3.0"},{"id":"total","label":"Total","value":"Mkt 38.5 · KEI 41.2"},{"id":"impliedWp","label":"Implied WP","value":"Jets 42% / Titans 58%"},{"id":"site","label":"Site","value":"Home / Road · HFA 1.05 pts"},{"id":"rest","label":"Rest","value":"Jets Season open / Titans Season open"},{"id":"pace","label":"Pace","value":"Jets 0.96 / Titans 0.94"},{"id":"structural","label":"Tags","value":"Jets Soft O index · Titans Soft O index"}],"hasPower":true}},{"id":"a8bc9d10-85a6-4302-b30e-cf2de423d273-total","game":"New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans","time":"09/13 1:00 PM ET","kickoffDate":"09/13","kickoffTime":"1:00 PM","commenceTime":"2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z","market":"Total","modelPeriod":"fg","open":"38.5","best":"39","book":"Bovada","bookKey":"bovada","bestJuice":"-110","bestJuiceHome":"-110","kei":"41.2","modelKei":"43.1","week":1,"seasonType":"REG","linesAsOf":"2026-09-12T06:59:57+00:00","publishTag":"LEAN","actionLabel":"LEAN","decision":{"market":"total","action_label":"LEAN","edge_magnitude":2.73,"model_confidence":{"score":0.72,"band":"MEDIUM","factors":{"scheme_stable":true,"injury_clear":true,"weather_clear":true,"qb_clear":true,"conflicting_inputs":false,"liquidity_ok":true,"historical_fit":null},"unresolved_flags":[]},"cover_prob":null,"play_to":{"side_or_total":"Over 38.5","play_to":38.5,"lean_to":39,"pass_from":39.5,"fair_line":41.23,"market_line":38.5,"edge_points":2.73,"notes":"Play Over 38.5 or better; lean to 39; pass 39.5+"},"market_confirmation":{"model_fair":41.23,"opening":38.5,"current":38.5,"closing":null,"confirms_thesis":false,"weakens_thesis":false,"note":"Market movement is information only; fair line unchanged."},"model_warning":false,"key_number_cross":true,"price_still_available":true,"numerical_edge":true,"confidence_ok":true,"reason":"mild_edge_pass","week":1,"week_regime":"early","fair_line":41.23,"market_line":38.5},"edgeMagnitude":2.729999999999997,"modelConfidenceScore":0.72,"modelConfidenceBand":"MEDIUM","modelConfidenceTierConstant":true,"playToNotes":"Play Over 38.5 or better; lean to 39; pass 39.5+","playToPlay":38.5,"playToLean":39,"playToPass":39.5,"fairLine":41.23,"decisionMarketLine":38.5,"keyNumberCross":true,"weekRegime":"early","awayAbbr":"NYJ","homeAbbr":"TEN","homeWinProb":0.5777,"awayWinProb":0.4223,"keiSpreadHome":-2.97,"marketSpreadHome":-1.5,"keiTotal":41.23,"marketTotal":38.5,"gamesPlayedAway":0,"gamesPlayedHome":0,"period":"fg","oddsMarketKey":"totals","neutralSite":false,"hfaPoints":1.05,"paceAway":0.957,"paceHome":0.944,"structuralTagAway":"Soft O index","structuralTagHome":"Soft O index","matchupOverview":"Bottom line\nJets at Titans: relative value sits with Titans against the board; size only if the price holds.\n\nWhat matters\n• Spread: KEI -3.0 vs market -1.5 (1.5 pt gap · Titans)\n• Implied WP Jets 42% / Titans 58%\n• KEI power gap +2.0 pts toward Titans\n• Rest: season open — weight travel/neutral and roster construction, not early-week narratives\n\nWhat flips\nLive only if the plus-number is still up; a steamed favorite kills the dog thesis.\n\nEarly-season uncertainty: no trailing sample yet — this is structure + price only.","matchupVoice":"dog","statDrop":{"slots":[{"id":"power","label":"Power","value":"KEI Jets -1.0 / Titans +1.0 (Δ +2.0)","requiredOk":true},{"id":"spread","label":"Spread","value":"Mkt -1.5 · KEI -3.0"},{"id":"total","label":"Total","value":"Mkt 38.5 · KEI 41.2"},{"id":"impliedWp","label":"Implied WP","value":"Jets 42% / Titans 58%"},{"id":"site","label":"Site","value":"Home / Road · HFA 1.05 pts"},{"id":"rest","label":"Rest","value":"Jets Season open / Titans Season open"},{"id":"pace","label":"Pace","value":"Jets 0.96 / Titans 0.94"},{"id":"structural","label":"Tags","value":"Jets Soft O index · Titans Soft O index"}],"hasPower":true},"totalCompareEligible":true,"totalIdentityReason":"ok"},{"id":"b57c9223-c6c3-4e30-8b13-a0896324297a-spread","game":"Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguars","time":"09/13 1:00 PM ET","kickoffDate":"09/13","kickoffTime":"1:00 PM","commenceTime":"2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z","market":"Spread","open":"+7.5","best":"+9.5","book":"Caesars","bookKey":"williamhill_us","bestJuice":"-115","bestJuiceHome":"-104","kei":"-6.9","modelKei":"-6.1","week":1,"seasonType":"REG","linesAsOf":"2026-09-12T06:59:57+00:00","publishTag":"LEAN","actionLabel":"LEAN","decision":{"market":"spread","action_label":"LEAN","edge_magnitude":1.64,"model_confidence":{"score":0.72,"band":"MEDIUM","factors":{"scheme_stable":true,"injury_clear":true,"weather_clear":true,"qb_clear":true,"conflicting_inputs":false,"liquidity_ok":true,"historical_fit":null},"unresolved_flags":[]},"cover_prob":null,"play_to":{"side_or_total":"CLE +8.5","play_to":9,"lean_to":8.5,"pass_from":8,"fair_line":-6.86,"market_line":-8.5,"edge_points":1.64,"notes":"Play CLE to +9; lean +8.5; pass +8 or worse"},"market_confirmation":{"model_fair":-6.86,"opening":-7.5,"current":-8.5,"closing":null,"confirms_thesis":false,"weakens_thesis":true,"note":"Market moved away from model fair — weakens thesis; fair unchanged."},"model_warning":false,"key_number_cross":true,"price_still_available":false,"numerical_edge":true,"confidence_ok":true,"reason":"mild_edge_pass|past_play_to","week":1,"week_regime":"early","fair_line":-6.86,"market_line":-8.5},"edgeMagnitude":1.6399999999999997,"modelConfidenceScore":0.72,"modelConfidenceBand":"MEDIUM","modelConfidenceTierConstant":true,"playToNotes":"Play CLE to +9; lean +8.5; pass +8 or worse","playToPlay":9,"playToLean":8.5,"playToPass":8,"fairLine":-6.86,"decisionMarketLine":-8.5,"keyNumberCross":true,"weekRegime":"early","awayAbbr":"CLE","homeAbbr":"JAX","homeWinProb":0.6887,"awayWinProb":0.3113,"keiSpreadHome":-6.86,"marketSpreadHome":-8.5,"keiTotal":41.46,"marketTotal":40,"gamesPlayedAway":0,"gamesPlayedHome":0,"period":"fg","oddsMarketKey":"spreads","neutralSite":false,"hfaPoints":1.05,"paceAway":0.975,"paceHome":1.01,"structuralTagAway":"Elite D index","structuralTagHome":"Elite D index","matchupOverview":"Bottom line\nBrowns at Jaguars: KEI -6.9 vs market -8.5 (1.6) — gap points to Browns.\n\nWhat matters\n• Spread: KEI -6.9 vs market -8.5 (1.6 pt gap · Browns)\n• Total: KEI 41.5 vs market 40.0 · over\n• Implied WP Browns 31% / Jaguars 69%\n\nWhat flips\nIf Browns’s price disappears, the edge left with it.\n\nEarly-season uncertainty: no trailing sample yet — this is structure + price only.","matchupVoice":"market","statDrop":{"slots":[{"id":"power","label":"Power","value":"KEI Browns -2.9 / Jaguars +2.9 (Δ +5.8)","requiredOk":true},{"id":"spread","label":"Spread","value":"Mkt -8.5 · KEI -6.9"},{"id":"total","label":"Total","value":"Mkt 40.0 · KEI 41.5"},{"id":"impliedWp","label":"Implied WP","value":"Browns 31% / Jaguars 69%"},{"id":"site","label":"Site","value":"Home / Road · HFA 1.05 pts"},{"id":"rest","label":"Rest","value":"Browns Season open / Jaguars Season open"},{"id":"pace","label":"Pace","value":"Browns 0.97 / Jaguars 1.01"},{"id":"structural","label":"Tags","value":"Browns Elite D index · Jaguars Elite D index"}],"hasPower":true}},{"id":"b57c9223-c6c3-4e30-8b13-a0896324297a-total","game":"Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguars","time":"09/13 1:00 PM ET","kickoffDate":"09/13","kickoffTime":"1:00 PM","commenceTime":"2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z","market":"Total","modelPeriod":"fg","open":"40.5","best":"40.5","book":"FanDuel","bookKey":"fanduel","bestJuice":"-104","bestJuiceHome":"-118","kei":"41.5","modelKei":"41.2","week":1,"seasonType":"REG","linesAsOf":"2026-09-12T06:59:57+00:00","publishTag":"PASS","actionLabel":"PASS","decision":{"market":"total","action_label":"PASS","edge_magnitude":1.46,"model_confidence":{"score":0.72,"band":"MEDIUM","factors":{"scheme_stable":true,"injury_clear":true,"weather_clear":true,"qb_clear":true,"conflicting_inputs":false,"liquidity_ok":true,"historical_fit":null},"unresolved_flags":[]},"cover_prob":null,"play_to":null,"market_confirmation":{"model_fair":41.46,"opening":40.5,"current":40,"closing":null,"confirms_thesis":false,"weakens_thesis":true,"note":"Market moved away from model fair — weakens thesis; 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fair line unchanged."},"model_warning":false,"key_number_cross":true,"price_still_available":false,"numerical_edge":false,"confidence_ok":true,"reason":"edge_below_total_threshold","week":1,"week_regime":"early","fair_line":41.57,"market_line":40.5},"edgeMagnitude":1.0700000000000003,"modelConfidenceScore":0.72,"modelConfidenceBand":"MEDIUM","modelConfidenceTierConstant":true,"fairLine":41.57,"decisionMarketLine":40.5,"keyNumberCross":true,"weekRegime":"early","awayAbbr":"MIA","homeAbbr":"LV","homeWinProb":0.585,"awayWinProb":0.415,"keiSpreadHome":-3.18,"marketSpreadHome":-3,"keiTotal":41.57,"marketTotal":40.5,"gamesPlayedAway":0,"gamesPlayedHome":0,"period":"fg","oddsMarketKey":"totals","neutralSite":false,"hfaPoints":1.05,"paceAway":0.894,"paceHome":0.894,"structuralTagAway":"Soft D index","structuralTagHome":"Soft O index","matchupOverview":"Bottom line\nDolphins at Raiders: dog Dolphins is priced fairly vs KEI — no gift on the plus side.\n\nWhat matters\n• Spread: KEI -3.2 ≈ market -3.0 — no forced lean\n• Implied WP Dolphins 42% / Raiders 59%\n• KEI power gap +2.2 pts toward Raiders\n• Rest: season open — weight travel/neutral and roster construction, not early-week narratives\n\nWhat flips\nLive only if the plus-number is still up; a steamed favorite kills the dog thesis.\n\nEarly-season uncertainty: no trailing sample yet — this is structure + price only.","matchupVoice":"dog","statDrop":{"slots":[{"id":"power","label":"Power","value":"KEI Dolphins -1.1 / Raiders +1.1 (Δ +2.2)","requiredOk":true},{"id":"spread","label":"Spread","value":"Mkt -3.0 · KEI -3.2"},{"id":"total","label":"Total","value":"Mkt 40.5 · KEI 41.6"},{"id":"impliedWp","label":"Implied WP","value":"Dolphins 42% / Raiders 59%"},{"id":"site","label":"Site","value":"Home / Road · HFA 1.05 pts"},{"id":"rest","label":"Rest","value":"Dolphins Season open / Raiders Season open"},{"id":"pace","label":"Pace","value":"Dolphins 0.89 / Raiders 0.89"},{"id":"structural","label":"Tags","value":"Dolphins Soft D index · Raiders Soft O index"}],"hasPower":true},"totalCompareEligible":true,"totalIdentityReason":"ok"},{"id":"50e29279-f3da-4017-bb31-168ac7251a18-spread","game":"Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles","time":"09/13 4:25 PM ET","kickoffDate":"09/13","kickoffTime":"4:25 PM","commenceTime":"2026-09-13T20:25:00.000Z","market":"Spread","open":"+4.5","best":"+6","book":"DraftKings","bookKey":"draftkings","bestJuice":"-112","bestJuiceHome":"-108","kei":"-6.5","modelKei":"-5.9","week":1,"seasonType":"REG","linesAsOf":"2026-09-12T06:59:57+00:00","publishTag":"PASS","actionLabel":"PASS","decision":{"market":"spread","action_label":"PASS","edge_magnitude":1.05,"model_confidence":{"score":0.72,"band":"MEDIUM","factors":{"scheme_stable":true,"injury_clear":true,"weather_clear":true,"qb_clear":true,"conflicting_inputs":false,"liquidity_ok":true,"historical_fit":null},"unresolved_flags":[]},"cover_prob":null,"play_to":null,"market_confirmation":{"model_fair":-6.55,"opening":-4.5,"current":-5.5,"closing":null,"confirms_thesis":true,"weakens_thesis":false,"note":"Market moved toward model fair — confirms thesis; 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lean to 45; pass 45.5+"},"market_confirmation":{"model_fair":47.38,"opening":47.5,"current":44,"closing":null,"confirms_thesis":true,"weakens_thesis":false,"note":"Market moved toward model fair — confirms thesis; fair unchanged."},"model_warning":false,"key_number_cross":true,"price_still_available":true,"numerical_edge":true,"confidence_ok":true,"reason":"play_triple_cleared|totals_play_sat","week":1,"week_regime":"early","fair_line":47.38,"market_line":44},"edgeMagnitude":3.3800000000000026,"modelConfidenceScore":0.72,"modelConfidenceBand":"MEDIUM","modelConfidenceTierConstant":true,"playToNotes":"Play Over 44.5 or better; lean to 45; pass 45.5+","playToPlay":44.5,"playToLean":45,"playToPass":45.5,"fairLine":47.38,"decisionMarketLine":44,"keyNumberCross":true,"weekRegime":"early","awayAbbr":"WAS","homeAbbr":"PHI","homeWinProb":0.647,"awayWinProb":0.353,"keiSpreadHome":-6.55,"marketSpreadHome":-5.5,"keiTotal":47.38,"marketTotal":44,"gamesPlayedAway":0,"gamesPlayedHome":0,"period":"fg","oddsMarketKey":"totals","neutralSite":false,"hfaPoints":1.05,"paceAway":0.928,"paceHome":0.956,"structuralTagAway":"Run-lean O","structuralTagHome":"Elite D index","matchupOverview":"Bottom line\nCommanders at Eagles: Pace proxy Commanders 0.93 / Eagles 0.96 — slower pace; 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