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MLBmodelsimulation

From Simulation to Price

Bottom line

Distributions become lines; lines become decisions. Simulation is not a pick — it is the machinery that produces a fair you can bet against.

Key points

  • Simulate outcomes → aggregate to team/player markets → compare to board.
  • Uncertainty belongs in the distribution, not in vibes after the fact.
  • Only the final price comparison is actionable.

The pipeline in one pass

KosEdge models (MLB as the deep example) build from lower-level events upward — matchup, environment, and roster context — into a distribution of scores and props.

That distribution collapses into fair prices: moneyline, spread/run line, total, props. KEI may reprice for information. Edge is still only versus the market you can bet.

What not to do with sims

  • Don't screenshot a single sim path and call it destiny
  • Don't dump raw model tables into decision-making
  • Don't skip threshold once the fair looks "close"

The editorial layer (Insights) explains thinking. The boards show the number. Keep them in their lanes.

What to do with this on KosEdge