processkei
Model vs KEI vs Market
Bottom line
Research fair, handicap reprice, edge only vs market. Three layers — don't collapse them into one number.
Key points
- Model = research fair from simulation and structure.
- KEI = handicap reprice that folds in information the raw model may lag.
- Market = the price you can actually bet. Edge lives only here.
Three layers, three jobs
The model answers: what does the distribution say before we argue with the board?
KEI answers: after trusted information and desk handicap, what is our actionable fair?
The market answers: what can we get paid at right now? Edge is KEI (or fair) versus that price — not versus a narrative, and not versus last week's close.
Where people get confused
- Treating model output as a bet slip
- Skipping KEI and calling every model/market gap "edge"
- Chasing steam without updating fair
KosEdge keeps the layers visible so you can see whether a play is research disagreement, information reprice, or true market misprice.
What to do with this on KosEdge
- Compare KEI to open/best on the Edge Board before you size anything. Edge Board →
- Pull sport-level KEI when you want the full fair grid. KEI Lines →