CLV Tracker
Closing Line Value: did the market move toward our number after we made the play? This is the metric professional bettors and books themselves use to judge whether a model actually has an edge — not just whether a pick won.
NFL — 2024–2025 seasons (real open-to-close line movement)
Only games where the model showed genuine edge vs. the opening price are counted as a play — no edge, no play, matching our "doesn't clear the threshold, doesn't make the board" policy.
By season
| Season | Market | Plays | Avg CLV | Beat close % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | moneyline | 230 | +0.087 | 47.4% |
| 2024 | total | 204 | +1.473 | 54.9% |
| 2025 | moneyline | 254 | +0.131 | 59.8% |
| 2025 | total | 242 | +0.690 | 48.8% |
Methodology & honest caveats
clv_value = close_implied_prob - open_implied_prob (moneyline, on the recommended side) or the total-line movement in the model's favored direction (total). Positive means the market moved toward confirming the play after we made it -- the standard professional-bettor definition of 'beating the closing line'.
2026 season is intentionally excluded from this report -- games haven't been played yet, and only near-simultaneous same-day snapshots exist so far (no real open-to-close separation). Live CLV tracking for 2026 begins accumulating now that the odds pipeline is running.
Report generated 2026-07-17 · model nfl-v1.5-matchup-sim · source: the-odds-api.com historical endpoint, draftkings+fanduel, open snapshot ~5 days before kickoff week, close snapshot ~day-of