MLB Fair Lines · 2026-07-28
Kosedge MLB Fair Values
Neutral model fair values — moneyline, total runs, and run line — for today’s slate. Starter and bullpen context feeds the projection; this board stays outcome-neutral.
13 games · mlb-v1-pa-sim
Run Line Board
| Matchup | First pitch | Fair ML | Win probs | Fair total | Run line (home) | Home cover prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals | Tue, Jul 28, 11:45 PM UTC | H +107 / A -107 | 48.4% / 51.6% | 10.0 | +0.5 | 27.1% |
Cleveland Guardians @ Cincinnati Reds | Tue, Jul 28, 11:10 PM UTC | H -149 / A +149 | 59.8% / 40.2% | 9.5 | -0.5 | 34.3% |
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Pittsburgh Pirates | Tue, Jul 28, 10:40 PM UTC | H -113 / A +113 | 53.0% / 47.0% | 10.0 | +1.5 | 31.1% |
Atlanta Braves @ New York Mets | Tue, Jul 28, 11:10 PM UTC | H -104 / A +104 | 50.9% / 49.1% | 9.5 | +1.5 | 29.5% |
New York Yankees @ Chicago White Sox | Tue, Jul 28, 11:40 PM UTC | H +121 / A -121 | 45.2% / 54.8% | 9.5 | +0.5 | 23.8% |
Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays | Tue, Jul 28, 10:40 PM UTC | H -123 / A +123 | 55.2% / 44.8% | 10.5 | -1.5 | 32.9% |
Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers | Tue, Jul 28, 10:40 PM UTC | H +179 / A -179 | 35.8% / 64.2% | 9.0 | +1.0 | 19.0% |
Boston Red Sox @ Athletics | Tue, Jul 28, 1:40 AM UTC | H +152 / A -152 | 39.6% / 60.4% | 9.0 | +1.0 | 19.6% |
Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants | Tue, Jul 28, 1:45 AM UTC | H -105 / A +105 | 51.2% / 48.8% | 9.0 | +1.5 | 29.0% |
Toronto Blue Jays @ Washington Nationals | Tue, Jul 28, 10:45 PM UTC | H -329 / A +329 | 76.7% / 23.3% | 9.0 | -1.5 | 52.3% |
Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins | Tue, Jul 28, 11:40 PM UTC | H +125 / A -125 | 44.5% / 55.5% | 9.5 | +0.5 | 24.0% |
Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Angels | Tue, Jul 28, 1:38 AM UTC | H -103 / A +103 | 50.7% / 49.3% | 10.5 | +1.5 | 30.6% |
Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins | Tue, Jul 28, 10:40 PM UTC | H -167 / A +167 | 62.5% / 37.5% | 9.0 | -0.5 | 37.8% |
MLB fair lines are simulation-backed reference prices — not picks. Run line uses the model’s home cover probability and fair spread; Edges desk joins live Vegas ML/totals when available.