2026 Award Race

MVP & Offensive Player of the Year

Real projected contenders ranked by team success, position voting history, and season stat projections — with the exact supporting numbers behind each ranking, not just a name.

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MVP Favorites

Weighted 45% team success, 35% player stat composite, 20% QB voting-history prior — a merely-good QB season on a great team still edges a middling non-QB season.

  1. #1J.HurtsPHI · QB
    87.7 score

    3771 pass yds · 25.9 pass TD · 394 rush yds · 8.2 rush TD

    Team wins: 10.7Div title: 66%Playoffs: 79%
    Team success score: 0.84Stat composite: 0.86
  2. #2J.AllenBUF · QB
    85.8 score

    3681 pass yds · 25.3 pass TD · 358 rush yds · 7.1 rush TD

    Team wins: 11.0Div title: 59%Playoffs: 86%
    Team success score: 0.86Stat composite: 0.77
  3. #3T.LawrenceJAX · QB
    81.0 score

    3979 pass yds · 27.3 pass TD · 408 rush yds · 9.6 rush TD

    Team wins: 9.2Div title: 34%Playoffs: 57%
    Team success score: 0.58Stat composite: 1.00
  4. #4M.StaffordLA · QB
    80.2 score

    3998 pass yds · 27.5 pass TD · 76 rush yds

    Team wins: 11.2Div title: 44%Playoffs: 84%
    Team success score: 0.83Stat composite: 0.65
  5. #5J.GoffDET · QB
    78.6 score

    4123 pass yds · 28.3 pass TD · 100 rush yds

    Team wins: 10.4Div title: 45%Playoffs: 73%
    Team success score: 0.75Stat composite: 0.72
  6. #6D.MayeNE · QB
    78.5 score

    3749 pass yds · 25.8 pass TD · 342 rush yds · 5.1 rush TD

    Team wins: 10.3Div title: 39%Playoffs: 76%
    Team success score: 0.72Stat composite: 0.75
  7. #7B.NixDEN · QB
    76.3 score

    3999 pass yds · 27.5 pass TD · 258 rush yds · 2.8 rush TD

    Team wins: 9.8Div title: 35%Playoffs: 66%
    Team success score: 0.64Stat composite: 0.78
  8. #8L.JacksonBAL · QB
    75.8 score

    3298 pass yds · 22.7 pass TD · 214 rush yds · 2.8 rush TD

    Team wins: 11.1Div title: 73%Playoffs: 87%
    Team success score: 0.91Stat composite: 0.43
  9. #9P.MahomesKC · QB
    73.7 score

    3866 pass yds · 26.6 pass TD · 181 rush yds · 2.2 rush TD

    Team wins: 9.9Div title: 38%Playoffs: 68%
    Team success score: 0.67Stat composite: 0.68
  10. #10S.DarnoldSEA · QB
    73.6 score

    3650 pass yds · 25.1 pass TD · 72 rush yds

    Team wins: 11.1Div title: 42%Playoffs: 83%
    Team success score: 0.82Stat composite: 0.48

Offensive Player of the Year Favorites

Weighted 65% player stat composite, 35% team success — no QB bias. Any offensive position can win purely on statistical dominance.

  1. #1J.GibbsDET · RB
    86.8 score

    1176 rush yds · 408 rec yds · 12.7 total TD

    Team wins: 10.4Div title: 45%Playoffs: 73%
    Team success score: 0.75Stat composite: 0.93
  2. #2T.LawrenceJAX · QB
    85.3 score

    3979 pass yds · 27.3 pass TD · 408 rush yds · 9.6 rush TD

    Team wins: 9.2Div title: 34%Playoffs: 57%
    Team success score: 0.58Stat composite: 1.00
  3. #3J.HurtsPHI · QB
    85.0 score

    3771 pass yds · 25.9 pass TD · 394 rush yds · 8.2 rush TD

    Team wins: 10.7Div title: 66%Playoffs: 79%
    Team success score: 0.84Stat composite: 0.86
  4. #4C.McCaffreySF · RB
    81.8 score

    1058 rush yds · 477 rec yds · 14.2 total TD

    Team wins: 9.4Div title: 14%Playoffs: 54%
    Team success score: 0.54Stat composite: 0.97
  5. #5A.St. BrownDET · WR
    81.3 score

    984 rec yds · 10.0 total TD

    Team wins: 10.4Div title: 45%Playoffs: 73%
    Team success score: 0.75Stat composite: 0.85
  6. #6J.AllenBUF · QB
    80.4 score

    3681 pass yds · 25.3 pass TD · 358 rush yds · 7.1 rush TD

    Team wins: 11.0Div title: 59%Playoffs: 86%
    Team success score: 0.86Stat composite: 0.77
  7. #7D.HenryBAL · RB
    77.7 score

    1134 rush yds · 98 rec yds · 12.1 total TD

    Team wins: 11.1Div title: 73%Playoffs: 87%
    Team success score: 0.91Stat composite: 0.70
  8. #8J.TaylorIND · RB
    76.3 score

    1308 rush yds · 238 rec yds · 13.2 total TD

    Team wins: 8.4Div title: 20%Playoffs: 40%
    Team success score: 0.45Stat composite: 0.93
  9. #9J.ChaseCIN · WR
    76.0 score

    1235 rec yds · 9.0 total TD

    Team wins: 8.5Div title: 16%Playoffs: 41%
    Team success score: 0.44Stat composite: 0.93
  10. #10D.MayeNE · QB
    73.7 score

    3749 pass yds · 25.8 pass TD · 342 rush yds · 5.1 rush TD

    Team wins: 10.3Div title: 39%Playoffs: 76%
    Team success score: 0.72Stat composite: 0.75

Team success score blends each contender's projected regular-season win total and division-title probability from the current season Monte Carlo. Stat composite compares each player only against same-position peers, so a QB's passing yardage is never compared directly to a WR's receiving yardage — only each player's standing within their own position group feeds the cross-position score.