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ARCHIVESeason 2026 · Week 1 · Premium team intel view for matchup prep and execution context.
ARCHIVE · showing 2026 finals (as-of) — not 2026 current
AFC South · KosEdge preview
True PR
Rank #4 · intrinsic 1.066 · nfl-season-engine-v1.27-kicker-layer
staff returning
Packaged depth past freshness window — named QB1 / IR / claims on Camp Desk.
Prior slate average (approx) · 17g · schedule-adj offense below raw
2026 slate average · road-heavy
Season preview
KosEdge
August 31, 2026
The defensive floor survives, but Houston’s WR2 uncertainty makes a taxed Over difficult to buy
Houston’s win total asks two different questions at once. Is a 12-win team with a high-end defense still more likely than not to reach 10? Probably. Is that answer strong enough to lay -146 after a season-ending injury removed a starting…
Coverage matrix · AFC South
W–L — with point differential —. Use pass rate and efficiency splits to calibrate spread/total assumptions before pricing.
Pass rate: 57.200 (16)% with red-zone TD rate 20.200 (16)%.
Offense EPA/play -0.032 (24); defense EPA allowed -0.168 (1).
Signal quality improves with full-week injury and depth updates.
0 reported injuries and 12 depth-chart records for this filter.
Impact Badge
Stable availability
Record
—
Win %
—
Point Diff
—
Pass Rate
0.572 (16)
RZ TD Rate
0.202 (16)
Off EPA / Play
-0.032 (24)
Def EPA Allowed
-0.168 (1)
| Games | Off Plays | Def Plays | Pass Rate | Early Pass | RZ TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 (1) | 62 (3) | 58 (25) | 0.572 (16) | 0.524 (19) | 0.202 (16) |
| Pos | Player | Slot | Order | Report |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB |
Schedule outlook only — does not change intrinsic PR
Preseason / 0 REG games — prior only (no current sample)
| C.J. Stroud |
| starter |
| 1 (1) |
| — |
| QB | Davis Mills | backup | 2 (4) | — |
| QB | Graham Mertz | rotation | 3 (7) | — |
| RB | David Montgomery | starter | 1 (1) | — |
| RB | Woody Marks | backup | 2 (4) | — |
| RB | Jawhar Jordan | rotation | 3 (7) | — |
| WR | Nico Collins | starter | 1 (1) | — |
| WR | Jayden Higgins | backup | 2 (4) | — |
Head coach, offensive coordinator, and defensive coordinator from the shared 2026 staff pack.
