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ARCHIVESeason 2026 · Week 1 · Premium team intel view for matchup prep and execution context.
ARCHIVE · showing 2026 finals (as-of) — not 2026 current
NFC South · KosEdge preview
True PR
Rank #19 · intrinsic 0.986 · nfl-season-engine-v1.27-kicker-layer
OC change
Packaged depth past freshness window — named QB1 / IR / claims on Camp Desk.
Prior slate average (approx) · 17g
2026 slate average · home-lean
Schedule outlook only — does not change intrinsic PR
Season preview
KosEdge
August 31, 2026
Tampa Bay owns the division’s clearest floor, and the market charges full price for it
Tampa Bay has the NFC South’s safest quarterback situation and its highest win total. Both are reasonable. Neither creates an edge.
Coverage matrix · NFC South
W–L — with point differential —. Use pass rate and efficiency splits to calibrate spread/total assumptions before pricing.
Pass rate: 56.600 (18)% with red-zone TD rate 19.900 (18)%.
Offense EPA/play +0.000 (18); defense EPA allowed +0.022 (20).
Signal quality improves with full-week injury and depth updates.
9 reported injuries and 12 depth-chart records for this filter.
Impact Badge
Elevated volatility
Record
—
Win %
—
Point Diff
—
Pass Rate
0.566 (18)
RZ TD Rate
0.199 (18)
Off EPA / Play
0 (18)
Def EPA Allowed
0.022 (20)
| Games | Off Plays | Def Plays | Pass Rate | Early Pass | RZ TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 (1) | 62 (3) | 58 (25) | 0.566 (18) | 0.526 (16) | 0.199 (18) |
| Pos | Player | Slot | Order | Report |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB |
Preseason / 0 REG games — prior only (no current sample)
| Baker Mayfield |
| starter |
| 1 (1) |
| — |
| QB | Jake Browning | backup | 2 (4) | — |
| QB | Connor Bazelak | rotation | 3 (7) | — |
| RB | Bucky Irving | starter | 1 (1) | — |
| RB | Kenny Gainwell | backup | 2 (4) | — |
| RB | Sean Tucker | rotation | 3 (7) | — |
| WR | Emeka Egbuka | starter | 1 (1) | — |
| WR | Chris Godwin Jr. | backup | 2 (4) | — |
Head coach, offensive coordinator, and defensive coordinator from the shared 2026 staff pack.
DC seat thin / unknown in packaged staff
