moneyline
- n (rows)
- 199
- Avg CLV
- -0.001
- Beat later snapshot
- —decided n=128
- Beat / push / lose
- 67 / 71 / 61
NFL Tracking
PRESEASONMODELCLV is the movement of our recommended side's market from the first captured price (open) to the last captured price (called close) on the same market. Positive means the market moved toward our side after the play was implied — we got a better number than the later line (beat the close).
Model nfl-v1.5-matchup-sim · lookback 45 days · Season 2026 · Preseason
PRESEASON / incomplete — not a beat-the-close rate
Live 2026 Tracking is incomplete until regular-season closes exist. Identical first/last scrapes are pushes, not losses — they are not “how often we beat the close.”
Population is +EV vs the open snapshot (moneyline: model win probability exceeds open implied probability on that side; total: |model − open| ≥ 1.0; spread: |model − open| ≥ 1.0). Not PLAY-only. Not graded-only.
Open = first legal snapshot and close = last snapshot strictly before kickoff (prefer labeled close) — post-kickoff rows are not the close.
Live lookback
incompleteShare of rows where the line moved and moved toward our side. Pushes (open = close) are excluded from this rate and listed separately. Population is +EV vs the open snapshot (moneyline: model win probability exceeds open implied probability on that side; total: |model − open| ≥ 1.0; spread: |model − open| ≥ 1.0). Not PLAY-only. Not graded-only.
total
- n (rows)
- 175
- Avg CLV
- 0.011
- Beat later snapshot
- —decided n=49
- Beat / push / lose
- 26 / 126 / 23
2024–2025 completed seasons
ARCHIVEclv_value = close_implied_prob - open_implied_prob (moneyline, on the recommended side) or the total-line movement in the model's favored direction (total). Positive means the market moved toward confirming the play after we made it -- the standard professional-bettor definition of 'beating the closing line'. n is plays with genuine edge vs open — 2026 season is intentionally excluded from this report -- games haven't been played yet, and only near-simultaneous same-day snapshots exist so far (no real open-to-close separation). Live CLV tracking for 2026 begins accumulating now that the odds pipeline is running.
Moneyline
53.9%beat the close
avg CLV +0.110 (implied win %) · n = 484
Totals
51.6%beat the close
avg CLV +1.048 (points) · n = 446