Draft flow
Fantasy Expert · Player card
B.Mayfield
QB13TBQB2Overall #22Check roleRole vs ADP
Floor
191
Median
282
Ceiling
383
Model rank / ADP
#22 / 150.7
Value Δ (ADP − model)
+128.7
VOR
+-3.0
Games projected
17
Check role · why this gap
- · Role: TB QB13 (QB2) · model #22
- · 3926 pass yards on TB (~231/g)
- · 34.1 pass TDs
- · Value Δ +129 vs ADP ~151
- · VOR -3 vs QB replacement
Why the model ranks them here
- · 3926 pass yards on TB (~231/g)
- · 34.1 pass TDs
Fantasy Expert
B.Mayfield (TB): model QB13 / overall #22 likes him more than market ADP ~151 — treat the gap as a signal, not a lottery smash. Season band 191–383 (med 282). Edge: 3926 pass yards on TB (~231/g); 34.1 pass TDs.
Schedule · risk
Neutral early · Neutral playoffs
Opp. expected wins — early 8.1, playoff weeks 9.0.
No major flags