Draft flow
Fantasy Expert · Player card
T.Lawrence
QB1JAXEliteOverall #2Check roleRole vs ADP
Floor
231
Median
348
Ceiling
472
Model rank / ADP
#2 / 86.3
Value Δ (ADP − model)
+84.3
VOR
+62.6
Games projected
17
Check role · why this gap
- · Role: JAX QB1 (elite) · model #2
- · 3749 pass yards on JAX (~221/g)
- · 32.6 pass TDs
- · 420 rush yards keep the floor alive on down weeks
- · Value Δ +84 vs ADP ~86
- · VOR +63 vs QB replacement
- · Game script / SOS: Tough early · Neutral playoffs
Why the model ranks them here
- · 32.6 pass TDs
- · 420 rush yards keep the floor alive on down weeks
- · +63 VOR vs QB replacement
Fantasy Expert
T.Lawrence (JAX): model QB1 / overall #2 likes him more than market ADP ~86 — treat the gap as a signal, not a lottery smash. Season band 231–472 (med 348). Edge: 32.6 pass TDs; 420 rush yards keep the floor alive on down weeks. Tough early · Neutral playoffs.
Schedule · risk
Tough early · Neutral playoffs
Opp. expected wins — early 9.5, playoff weeks 8.0.
No major flags