Bottom line
Group-of-X #1 in this ship: South Florida is the AAC power lead (#42) with post–Week-0 E[wins] #15 (8.38) — no longer the national 8.88=OSU trap. UTSA is #55 power / mid-pack E[wins]. Memphis and Tulane follow. This is a path conference, not a talent conference.
Contenders
USF (KJ Cooper). UTSA (Owen McCown) is the second AAC power row. Neither is a top-25 talent row on this SoT.
Sleepers
Memphis and Tulane. Their win totals will look better than their power ranks. That is the AAC pattern, not a bug.
Schedule / path notes
Week 0: Memphis at UNLV (closed). Week 1: USF vs FIU, UTSA’s opener is on the official board. North Texas displays as AAC (SoT still said Independent) and opens at Indiana — that is a Power-4 road, not an AAC cupcake.
Research angles
Any board that ranks USF / UTSA / USF-class teams above Power-4 in power is wrong. This board does not. E[wins] is allowed to look path-loud; the page banners it.
Model note
KosEdge CFB Model · N=10,000 · as_of 2026-08-31 · used_in_spread=false · KEI is a separate published line.