MODEL

Season projections

Frozen research expected wins on the official 2026 ESPN slate. N is the artifact path count. CFP / natty live on Futures — not invented here as book prices.

MODEL research — Model is not the published handicap. KEI is the published line; Edge / Tag = KEI vs market.

← CFB Overview Model transparency

Power / Teams Model hub

Research only · N documented

Precomputed artifact cfb-season-projections-v0.15-n10000-week0-close-20260831 · N=10000 independent Bernoulli paths · 761 games scored · win_tables_final=false. E[wins] is schedule-adjusted. Power rank is talent. Win totals are research (used_in_spread=false). KEI is the published game line. Futures →

Engine cfb-season-engine-v0.15-power-sot · N=10000 · as_of 2026-08-31 · power cfb-power-sot-v0.15-week0-close-20260831 · used_in_spread=false

E[wins] ≠ power — schedule cluster

These rows sit in the top 20 of expected wins with power rank 35 or worse. That is a soft path, not a talent inversion (USF-class).

USF E#15 / P#42

E#	Team	Conf	E[wins]	p10–p90	σ	Power #
1	MIAMiami	ACC	10.15	9–12	1.14	4
2	NDNotre Dame	Independent	10.05	8–11	1.20	7
3	OREOregon	Big Ten	9.69	8–11	1.23	2
4	UTAHUtah	Big 12	9.63	8–11	1.32	9
5	OSUOhio State	Big Ten	9.54	8–11	1.31	1
6	UVAVirginia	ACC	9.53	8–11	1.28	22
7	SMUSMU	ACC	9.21	8–11	1.29	14
8	TTUTexas Tech	Big 12	9.11	7–11	1.39	17
9	PSUPenn State	Big Ten	8.80	7–11	1.38	20
10	CLEMClemson	ACC	8.76	7–11	1.43	18
11	WASHWashington	Big Ten	8.64	7–10	1.35	12
12	MISSOle Miss	SEC	8.46	7–10	1.31	3
13	IUIndiana	Big Ten	8.42	7–10	1.29	5
14	LOULouisville	ACC	8.41	7–10	1.47	21
15	USFSouth Florida	AAC	8.38	7–10	1.12	42
16	TAMUTexas A&M	SEC	8.38	7–10	1.30	6
17	USCUSC	Big Ten	8.24	6–10	1.40	11
18	AUBAuburn	SEC	8.18	6–10	1.46	13
19	ARIArizona	Big 12	8.13	6–10	1.53	15
20	NCSUNC State	ACC	8.08	6–10	1.34	27
21	PITTPITT	ACC	8.05	6–10	1.38	36
22	JMUJames Madison	Sun Belt	7.91	6–10	1.40	65
23	TEXTexas	SEC	7.56	6–9	1.39	8
24	KSUKSU	Big 12	7.54	6–9	1.49	37
25	AFAAFA	Mountain West	7.34	6–9	1.31	73
26	LIBLiberty	CUSA	7.33	5–9	1.55	87
27	ISUISU	Big 12	7.30	5–9	1.52	30
28	GTGT	ACC	7.03	5–9	1.51	43
29	IOWAIOWA	Big Ten	7.00	5–9	1.56	34
30	DUKEDUKE	ACC	6.99	5–9	1.39	39
31	MRSHMRSH	Sun Belt	6.98	5–9	1.35	81
32	TENNTENN	SEC	6.97	5–9	1.51	23
33	ASUASU	Big 12	6.96	5–9	1.48	31
34	OUOklahoma	SEC	6.92	5–9	1.34	10
35	CINCIN	Big 12	6.90	5–9	1.50	38
36	UCFUCF	Big 12	6.86	5–9	1.60	46
37	TROYTROY	Sun Belt	6.85	5–9	1.39	69
38	BAYBaylor	Big 12	6.82	5–9	1.57	35
39	LSULSU	SEC	6.77	5–9	1.48	25
40	OHIOOHIO	MAC	6.76	5–8	1.34	75
41	UGAGeorgia	SEC	6.74	5–9	1.49	19
42	ILLILL	Big Ten	6.72	5–8	1.42	26
43	ALAAlabama	SEC	6.70	5–9	1.55	16
44	BOISEBoise State	Mountain West	6.65	5–8	1.34	47
45	M-OHM-OH	MAC	6.63	5–9	1.51	84
46	VANVAN	SEC	6.62	5–9	1.57	29
47	WMUWMU	MAC	6.55	5–8	1.49	78
48	MICHMICH	Big Ten	6.53	5–8	1.46	32
49	SCARSCAR	SEC	6.41	4–8	1.51	33
50	CALCAL	ACC	6.39	4–8	1.51	51
51	BYUBYU	Big 12	6.37	4–8	1.53	24
52	RUTRUT	Big Ten	6.36	5–8	1.43	45
53	HAWHawai'i	Mountain West	6.34	5–8	1.14	62
54	FSUFlorida State	ACC	6.31	5–8	1.44	41
55	MDMD	Big Ten	6.25	4–8	1.48	48
56	WSUWSU	Pac-12	6.24	4–8	1.39	58
57	AKRAKR	MAC	6.21	4–8	1.60	92
58	COLOCOLO	Big 12	6.06	4–8	1.61	50
59	WISWisconsin	Big Ten	6.05	4–8	1.53	54
60	WYOWYO	Mountain West	6.03	4–8	1.41	86
61	MEMMemphis	AAC	6.03	5–7	1.19	71
62	DELDEL	CUSA	6.02	4–8	1.41	79
63	WKUWKU	CUSA	6.01	4–8	1.30	68
64	UTSAUTSA	AAC	5.97	4–7	1.18	55
65	MINNMINN	Big Ten	5.91	4–8	1.46	49
66	EMUEMU	MAC	5.85	4–8	1.36	94
67	NEBNEB	Big Ten	5.78	4–8	1.49	40
68	KENNESAWKENNESAW	CUSA	5.73	4–7	1.39	88
69	ARMYArmy	Independent	5.64	4–8	1.54	91
70	TCUTCU	Big 12	5.64	4–7	1.42	28
71	BUFFBUFF	MAC	5.64	4–7	1.46	115
72	TLSATLSA	AAC	5.63	4–7	1.43	102
73	USAUSA	Sun Belt	5.55	4–7	1.50	90
74	ULMULM	Sun Belt	5.52	4–7	1.46	93
75	UNLVUNLV	Mountain West	5.39	4–7	1.23	63
76	WAKEWAKE	ACC	5.39	4–7	1.47	52
77	TULNTulane	AAC	5.38	4–7	1.39	80
78	FIUFIU	CUSA	5.36	3–7	1.50	101
79	UTAHSTUTAHST	Mountain West	5.36	4–7	1.38	70
80	MASSMASS	MAC	5.27	4–7	1.37	123
81	KUKU	Big 12	5.27	3–7	1.42	56
82	SDSUSDSU	Mountain West	5.20	3–7	1.41	67
83	FAUFAU	AAC	5.13	3–7	1.35	96
84	NMSUNMSU	CUSA	5.09	3–7	1.42	83
85	CMUCMU	MAC	5.08	3–7	1.45	116
86	USMUSM	Sun Belt	5.01	3–7	1.43	89
87	TXSTTexas State	Sun Belt	4.95	3–7	1.29	60
88	BGSUBGSU	MAC	4.90	3–7	1.34	117
89	GASOGASO	Sun Belt	4.89	3–7	1.41	100
90	KENTKENT	MAC	4.84	3–7	1.38	114
91	LTLT	CUSA	4.83	3–7	1.39	82
92	HOUHOU	Big 12	4.78	3–7	1.46	74
93	CONNUConn	Independent	4.77	3–7	1.49	104
94	MOSTMOST	CUSA	4.75	3–7	1.47	98
95	SJSUSJSU	Mountain West	4.70	3–6	1.33	108
96	FRESFRES	Mountain West	4.63	3–6	1.33	103
97	NWNW	Big Ten	4.62	3–6	1.43	66
98	NIUNIU	MAC	4.56	3–6	1.35	110
99	UKUK	SEC	4.54	3–6	1.35	57
100	TEMTEM	AAC	4.50	3–6	1.22	106
101	WVUWVU	Big 12	4.38	3–6	1.28	72
102	MSUMSU	Big Ten	4.25	3–6	1.40	59
103	ULUL	Sun Belt	4.24	2–6	1.39	113
104	NAVYNAVY	AAC	4.19	2–6	1.37	105
105	ARKARK	SEC	4.13	3–6	1.30	44
106	UFUF	SEC	4.13	2–6	1.38	61
107	ORSTORST	Pac-12	4.08	2–6	1.40	95
108	PURPUR	Big Ten	4.06	2–6	1.41	64
109	UTEPUTEP	CUSA	3.96	2–6	1.23	112
110	MSSTMSST	SEC	3.79	2–5	1.31	53
111	VTVT	ACC	3.78	2–5	1.30	77
112	MTSUMTSU	CUSA	3.74	2–6	1.41	111
113	UNCUNC	ACC	3.66	2–5	1.14	99
114	SYRSYR	ACC	3.65	2–5	1.29	85
115	GASTGAST	Sun Belt	3.59	2–5	1.29	119
116	BALLBall State	MAC	3.49	2–5	1.38	125
117	SHSUSHSU	CUSA	3.47	2–5	1.32	118
118	OKSTOKST	Big 12	3.46	2–5	1.36	97
119	APPAPP	Sun Belt	3.37	2–5	1.26	121
120	CCUCCU	Sun Belt	3.36	2–5	1.29	120
121	UCLAUCLA	Big Ten	3.14	1–5	1.44	76
122	STANStanford	ACC	3.07	2–4	1.04	107
123	CHARCHAR	AAC	2.75	1–4	1.18	122
124	BCBC	ACC	2.52	1–4	1.15	109
125	RICERICE	AAC	2.30	1–4	1.20	124
113	ARSTARST	Sun Belt	—	—	—	113
111	CSUCSU	Pac-12	—	—	—	111
70	ECUECU	AAC	—	—	—	70
95	JVSTJVST	CUSA	—	—	—	95
47	MIZZMissouri	SEC	—	—	—	47
121	NEVNEV	Mountain West	—	—	—	121
89	ODUODU	Sun Belt	—	—	—	89
74	TOLToledo	MAC	—	—	—	74
117	UABUAB	AAC	—	—	—	117
71	UNMUNM	Mountain West	—	—	—	71
29	UNTNorth Texas	AAC	—	—	—	29

Season projections

Frozen research expected wins on the official 2026 ESPN slate. N is the artifact path count. CFP / natty live on Futures — not invented here as book prices.

MODEL research — Model is not the published handicap. KEI is the published line; Edge / Tag = KEI vs market.

Team

Conf

E[wins]

p10–p90

Power #

MIAMiami

ACC

10.15

9–12

1.14

NDNotre Dame

Independent

10.05

8–11

1.20

OREOregon

Big Ten

9.69

8–11

1.23

UTAHUtah

Big 12

9.63

8–11

1.32

OSUOhio State

Big Ten

9.54

8–11

1.31

UVAVirginia

ACC

9.53

8–11

1.28

SMUSMU

ACC

9.21

8–11

1.29

TTUTexas Tech

Big 12

9.11

7–11

1.39

PSUPenn State

Big Ten

8.80

7–11

1.38

CLEMClemson

ACC

8.76

7–11

1.43

WASHWashington

Big Ten

8.64

7–10

1.35

MISSOle Miss

SEC

8.46

7–10

1.31

IUIndiana

Big Ten

8.42

7–10

1.29

LOULouisville

ACC

8.41

7–10

1.47

USFSouth Florida

AAC

8.38

7–10

1.12

TAMUTexas A&M

SEC

8.38

7–10

1.30

USCUSC

Big Ten

8.24

6–10

1.40

AUBAuburn

SEC

8.18

6–10

1.46

ARIArizona

Big 12

8.13

6–10

1.53

NCSUNC State

ACC

8.08

6–10

1.34

PITTPITT

ACC

8.05

6–10

1.38

JMUJames Madison

Sun Belt

7.91

6–10

1.40

TEXTexas

SEC

7.56

6–9

1.39

KSUKSU

Big 12

7.54

6–9

1.49

AFAAFA

Mountain West

7.34

6–9

1.31

LIBLiberty

CUSA

7.33

5–9

1.55

ISUISU

Big 12

7.30

5–9

1.52

GTGT

ACC

7.03

5–9

1.51

IOWAIOWA

Big Ten

7.00

5–9

1.56

DUKEDUKE

ACC

6.99

5–9

1.39

MRSHMRSH

Sun Belt

6.98

5–9

1.35

TENNTENN

SEC

6.97

5–9

1.51

ASUASU

Big 12

6.96

5–9

1.48

OUOklahoma

SEC

6.92

5–9

1.34

CINCIN

Big 12

6.90

5–9

1.50

UCFUCF

Big 12

6.86

5–9

1.60

TROYTROY

Sun Belt

6.85

5–9

1.39

BAYBaylor

Big 12

6.82

5–9

1.57

LSULSU

SEC

6.77

5–9

1.48

OHIOOHIO

MAC

6.76

5–8

1.34

UGAGeorgia

SEC

6.74

5–9

1.49

ILLILL

Big Ten

6.72

5–8

1.42

ALAAlabama

SEC

6.70

5–9

1.55

BOISEBoise State

Mountain West

6.65

5–8

1.34

M-OHM-OH

MAC

6.63

5–9

1.51

VANVAN

SEC

6.62

5–9

1.57

WMUWMU

MAC

6.55

5–8

1.49

MICHMICH

Big Ten

6.53

5–8

1.46

SCARSCAR

SEC

6.41

4–8

1.51

CALCAL

ACC

6.39

4–8

1.51

BYUBYU

Big 12

6.37

4–8

1.53

RUTRUT

Big Ten

6.36

5–8

1.43

HAWHawai'i

Mountain West

6.34

5–8

1.14

FSUFlorida State

ACC

6.31

5–8

1.44

MDMD

Big Ten

6.25

4–8

1.48

WSUWSU

Pac-12

6.24

4–8

1.39

AKRAKR

MAC

6.21

4–8

1.60

COLOCOLO

Big 12

6.06

4–8

1.61

WISWisconsin

Big Ten

6.05

4–8

1.53

WYOWYO

Mountain West

6.03

4–8

1.41

MEMMemphis

AAC

6.03

5–7

1.19

DELDEL

CUSA

6.02

4–8

1.41

WKUWKU

CUSA

6.01

4–8

1.30

UTSAUTSA

AAC

5.97

4–7

1.18

MINNMINN

Big Ten

5.91

4–8

1.46

EMUEMU

MAC

5.85

4–8

1.36

NEBNEB

Big Ten

5.78

4–8

1.49

KENNESAWKENNESAW

CUSA

5.73

4–7

1.39

ARMYArmy

Independent

5.64

4–8

1.54

TCUTCU

Big 12

5.64

4–7

1.42

BUFFBUFF

MAC

5.64

4–7

1.46

115

TLSATLSA

AAC

5.63

4–7

1.43

102

USAUSA

Sun Belt

5.55

4–7

1.50

ULMULM

Sun Belt

5.52

4–7

1.46

UNLVUNLV

Mountain West

5.39

4–7

1.23

WAKEWAKE

ACC

5.39

4–7

1.47

TULNTulane

AAC

5.38

4–7

1.39

FIUFIU

CUSA

5.36

3–7

1.50

101

UTAHSTUTAHST

Mountain West

5.36

4–7

1.38

MASSMASS

MAC

5.27

4–7

1.37

123

KUKU

Big 12

5.27

3–7

1.42

SDSUSDSU

Mountain West

5.20

3–7

1.41

FAUFAU

AAC

5.13

3–7

1.35

NMSUNMSU

CUSA

5.09

3–7

1.42

CMUCMU

MAC

5.08

3–7

1.45

116

USMUSM

Sun Belt

5.01

3–7

1.43

TXSTTexas State

Sun Belt

4.95

3–7

1.29

BGSUBGSU

MAC

4.90

3–7

1.34

117

GASOGASO

Sun Belt

4.89

3–7

1.41

100

KENTKENT

MAC

4.84

3–7

1.38

114

LTLT

CUSA

4.83

3–7

1.39

HOUHOU

Big 12

4.78

3–7

1.46

CONNUConn

Independent

4.77

3–7

1.49

104

MOSTMOST

CUSA

4.75

3–7

1.47

SJSUSJSU

Mountain West

4.70

3–6

1.33

108

FRESFRES

Mountain West

4.63

3–6

1.33

103

NWNW

Big Ten

4.62

3–6

1.43

NIUNIU

MAC

4.56

3–6

1.35

110

UKUK

SEC

4.54

3–6

1.35

100

TEMTEM

AAC

4.50

3–6

1.22

106

101

WVUWVU

Big 12

4.38

3–6

1.28

102

MSUMSU

Big Ten

4.25

3–6

1.40

103

ULUL

Sun Belt

4.24

2–6

1.39

113

104

NAVYNAVY

AAC

4.19

2–6

1.37

105

ARKARK

SEC

4.13

3–6

1.30

106

UFUF

SEC

4.13

2–6

1.38

107

ORSTORST

Pac-12

4.08

2–6

1.40

108

PURPUR

Big Ten

4.06

2–6

1.41

109

UTEPUTEP

CUSA

3.96

2–6

1.23

112

110

MSSTMSST

SEC

3.79

2–5

1.31

111

VTVT

ACC

3.78

2–5

1.30

112

MTSUMTSU

CUSA

3.74

2–6

1.41

111

113

UNCUNC

ACC

3.66

2–5

1.14

114

SYRSYR

ACC

3.65

2–5

1.29

115

GASTGAST

Sun Belt

3.59

2–5

1.29

119

116

BALLBall State

MAC

3.49

2–5

1.38

125

117

SHSUSHSU

CUSA

3.47

2–5

1.32

118

OKSTOKST

Big 12

3.46

2–5

1.36

119

APPAPP

Sun Belt

3.37

2–5

1.26

121

120

CCUCCU

Sun Belt

3.36

2–5

1.29

120

121

UCLAUCLA

Big Ten

3.14

1–5

1.44

122

STANStanford

ACC

3.07

2–4

1.04

107

123

CHARCHAR

AAC

2.75

1–4

1.18

122

124

BCBC

ACC

2.52

1–4

1.15

109

125

RICERICE

AAC

2.30

1–4

1.20

124

113

ARSTARST

Sun Belt

—

113

111

CSUCSU

Pac-12

—

111

ECUECU

AAC

—

JVSTJVST

CUSA

—

MIZZMissouri

SEC

—

121

NEVNEV

Mountain West

—

121

ODUODU

Sun Belt

—

TOLToledo

MAC

—

117

UABUAB

AAC

—

117

UNMUNM

Mountain West

—

UNTNorth Texas

AAC

—