Research desk · Team Previews
2026 CFB team previews
KosEdge + date only — no writer byline. Locked house format. Research language. 9 shipped today; template is reusable for the rest of the 136.
Big Ten · 2026-08-31
Ohio State
Frozen SoT still ranks Ohio State #1 in power (1.617) with the lowest early-season uncertainty among the top five. That is a talent claim, not a win-total claim — the post–Week-0 10,000-path board has the Buckeyes at 9.54 E[wins] (p10–p90 8–11), fifth in expected wins because the Big Ten slate is harder than ACC / Independent paths above them.
Big Ten · 2026-08-31
Oregon
Oregon is #2 in power (1.563) and #3 in E[wins] (9.69, band 8–11). The portal QB prior (Dante Moore) is already in the index — uncertainty 0.325 is higher than Ohio State’s 0.215, which is the honest early-season gap, not a hidden downgrade.
SEC · 2026-08-31
Ole Miss
Ole Miss is the SEC’s top power row (#3 overall, 1.548) with a portal QB prior (Trinidad Chambliss). E[wins] 8.46 (band 7–10) ranks 12th — the SEC path taxes win totals more than the Independent / ACC slates above them.
ACC · 2026-08-31
Miami
Miami is #4 in power (1.531) and #1 in E[wins] (10.15, band 9–12). That split is the product: ACC path + packaged efficiency, not a claim that Miami is more talented than Ohio State or Oregon.
Independent · 2026-08-31
Notre Dame
Notre Dame is the Independent that matters. Power #7 (1.502), E[wins] #2 (10.05, band 8–11). The win-total lead is schedule: Independent path plus a Week 1 Wisconsin game the board already prices as a home/neutral row. This is not a CFP selection model.
Big 12 · 2026-08-31
Utah
Utah is the Big 12’s top power row (#9 overall, 1.484) and #4 in E[wins] (9.63, band 8–11). Portal QB Devon Dampier is in the prior. Week 1 is FCS Idaho — the win-total is not being earned against that opener; it is the rest of the Big 12 path plus the power index.
AAC · 2026-08-31
South Florida
USF is the honesty check. Power #42 (1.260) — not a top-10 talent row. Post–Week-0 E[wins] #15 (8.38, band 7–10) — no longer tied with Ohio State. Soft AAC path still helps the win total; power order stays OSU–ORE–MISS–MIA.
Mountain West · 2026-08-31
Boise State
Boise is the Mountain West’s top power row (#47, 1.239) and a real Week 1 test at Oregon. E[wins] 6.65 (band 5–8) is not a Group-of-X title claim — it already prices the Oregon road opener.
Sun Belt · 2026-08-31
James Madison
James Madison is the third G5 preview: power #65 (1.149), E[wins] #22 (7.91, band 6–10). Open QB (Arrington Maiden, Open competition). Higher uncertainty (0.394) than the P4 incumbents. Win-total is a Sun Belt path, not a talent spike.