Bottom line
Miami is the ACC talent and win-total leader (power 4, E[wins] 10.15). SMU #14, Clemson #18, Louisville #21, Virginia #22, NC State #27. The ACC is where expected wins run hot relative to power.
Contenders
Miami (Darian Mensah). SMU (Kevin Jennings, E[wins] 9.21) is the second ACC power row. Clemson (Christopher Vizzina) is #18 — still a contender in this conference, not on the national power board.
Sleepers
Virginia (#22, E[wins] 9.53) and NC State (#27, 8.08) are the schedule-driven ACC cluster. They are not top-10 talent.
Schedule / path notes
Week 0: Virginia vs NC State (closed). Week 1: Miami at Stanford, SMU at Florida State, Clemson at LSU. Those openers are the first live checks; LSU/FSU are not ACC games.
Research angles
If an ACC win total sits at 10+, compare it to the Miami 9–12 / SMU 8–11 bands before treating it as a research conflict. Edge Board is KEI vs market.
Model note
KosEdge CFB Model · N=10,000 · as_of 2026-08-31 · used_in_spread=false · KEI is a separate published line.