Bottom line
Utah #9 is the power lead. Arizona #15, Texas Tech #17, BYU #24, TCU #28, Iowa State #30. Several Week 1 games are FCS — do not read those openers as conference information.
Contenders
Utah (Devon Dampier, E[wins] 9.63). Arizona (Noah Fifita, E[wins] 8.13) and Texas Tech (Will Hammond, E[wins] 9.11) are the next two power rows and both open against FCS.
Sleepers
BYU #24 and TCU #28 (TCU hosted North Carolina in Week 0 — closed). Iowa State #30.
Schedule / path notes
Week 0: TCU vs North Carolina (closed). Week 1 FCS openers: Utah–Idaho, Arizona–Northern Arizona, Texas Tech–Abilene Christian. First FBS tests come later.
Research angles
Utah’s 9.63 E[wins] is a path number. Power 1.48 is the talent number. Track remaining FBS openers in Project Game; skip inventing lines on FCS openers.
Model note
KosEdge CFB Model · N=10,000 · as_of 2026-08-31 · used_in_spread=false · KEI is a separate published line.