Bottom line
Ohio State #1 and Oregon #2 are the talent ceiling. Indiana #5 is the 2025-holdover row (Josh Hoover prior) — not a G5 inversion. USC #11 and Washington #12 keep the West side in the top 15. Penn State is #20.
Contenders
Ohio State (1 / 9.54, Julian Sayin) and Oregon (2 / 9.69, Dante Moore). Indiana (5 / 8.42) is a real power row on this SoT, not a warehouse fill.
Sleepers
USC (Week 0 vs San Jose State — first live FBS game on the packaged board) and Washington. They are top-15 power, mid-win-total because of the same Big Ten path that holds Ohio State to 9.54 E[wins].
Schedule / path notes
Week 0: USC vs SJSU (closed). Week 1: Ohio State–Ball State, Oregon–Boise, Indiana–North Texas, Washington–Washington State, Penn State–Marshall.
Research angles
IU at power #5 will look loud if you only remember 2023. The SoT is 2025-efficiency + roster/QB. Flag it; do not silently rerank. Win totals are not inverted vs consensus talent once you separate path from power.
Model note
KosEdge CFB Model · N=10,000 · as_of 2026-08-31 · used_in_spread=false · KEI is a separate published line.