Bottom line
Notre Dame is the Independent product. Power #7, E[wins] #2 (10.05). UConn remains a true Independent. The SoT Independent bucket also still contains leftover mappings (Missouri, North Texas, Toledo, New Mexico, East Carolina, and others). Those teams are filtered to their 2026 affiliation on Teams; we do not silently rewrite their power index.
Contenders
Notre Dame (CJ Carr). That is the list for Independent talent.
Sleepers
UConn is the other true Independent on the display overlay. Army displays as AAC (2024+ affiliation). Do not treat leftover Independent labels as a sleeper conference.
Schedule / path notes
Notre Dame Week 1 vs Wisconsin (neutral on the official slate). UConn Week 1 vs FCS Lafayette.
Research angles
Use the Independent conference page for the ND note, not as a 14-team standings race. Overlay is documented in data/ops and on the Teams filter.
Model note
KosEdge CFB Model · N=10,000 · as_of 2026-08-31 · used_in_spread=false · KEI is a separate published line.