Bottom line
Group-of-X #2: Boise State is the power lead (#47). Hawai'i #62 and UNLV #63 sit together. Hawai'i’s E[wins] (6.34) is a schedule number — power is 62nd, not inverted.
Contenders
Boise State (Maddux Madsen), with the Week 1 Oregon road already in the 6.65 E[wins]. UNLV (Jackson Arnold) is the second interesting MWC row.
Sleepers
Hawai'i (Micah Alejado) — win-total sleeper relative to power, not a top-20 talent sleeper. San Diego State and Utah State trail.
Schedule / path notes
Week 0: Hawai'i at Stanford and Memphis at UNLV (closed). Week 1: Boise at Oregon is the MWC event. New Mexico and Nevada / Colorado State display as MWC via overlay.
Research angles
Use Boise/Oregon as the research-fair Project Game. Do not promote Hawai'i into a top-20 talent conversation because of E[wins].
Model note
KosEdge CFB Model · N=10,000 · as_of 2026-08-31 · used_in_spread=false · KEI is a separate published line.