Bottom line
Boise is the Mountain West’s top power row (#47, 1.239) and a real Week 1 test at Oregon. E[wins] 6.65 (band 5–8) is not a Group-of-X title claim — it already prices the Oregon road opener.
The number
Research win band 5–8 (median 7, E[wins] 6.65). Power rank 47. Research only.
Quick projection
Offense 1.35 / defense 1.13. Bowl probability 0.875. Futures live on the futures artifact.
Roster snapshot
QB Maddux Madsen, incumbent, not open. Packaged SP+ 2025. Next: Week 1 at Oregon.
What matters most
Week 1 at Oregon is the first live calibration for both programs. A competitive score does not move Boise into the Power-4 talent tier; a blowout does not erase the MWC power lead.
Schedule notes
ORE @ home for Oregon / road for Boise is an official Week 1 FBS row — Project Game deep-link is live. Remaining MWC path is why 6.65 E[wins] can still be a bowl prior.
Betting angles to track
Track the Oregon opener as research-fair vs books. Do not invent a Boise season win-total lean from 6.65. KEI is the published Edge Board line when the game is on the slate.
What would change this view
Madsen not starting; Oregon Week 1 injury on either side; or MWC slate adding another Power-4 road game.
Model note
KosEdge CFB Model · engine cfb-season-engine-v0.15-power-sot · N=10,000 · as_of 2026-08-31 · used_in_spread=false · KEI is a separate published line.