Bottom line
James Madison is the third G5 preview: power #65 (1.149), E[wins] #22 (7.91, band 6–10). Open QB (Arrington Maiden, Open competition). Higher uncertainty (0.394) than the P4 incumbents. Win-total is a Sun Belt path, not a talent spike.
The number
Research win band 6–10 (median 8, E[wins] 7.91). Power rank 65. Research only.
Quick projection
Offense 1.12 / defense 1.18. Bowl probability 0.926. Futures live on the futures artifact.
Roster snapshot
QB Arrington Maiden, open competition. Packaged SP+ 2025. Next: Week 1 home vs Liberty.
What matters most
The open QB is the row’s honesty label. Until a starter sticks, treat the 7.91 E[wins] as wider than the p10–p90 band implies.
Schedule notes
Week 1 LIB is on the official slate. Sun Belt remaining path is why this sits mid-pack in expected wins and nowhere near Power-4 in power.
Betting angles to track
Track the Liberty opener in Project Game. Season band 6–10 vs any posted win total — default pass inside the band. No PLAY language.
What would change this view
A named starter for 3+ weeks; Maiden not the guy; or a Power-4 road add on the official slate.
Model note
KosEdge CFB Model · engine cfb-season-engine-v0.15-power-sot · N=10,000 · as_of 2026-08-31 · used_in_spread=false · KEI is a separate published line.