Bottom line
Miami is #4 in power (1.531) and #1 in E[wins] (10.15, band 9–12). That split is the product: ACC path + packaged efficiency, not a claim that Miami is more talented than Ohio State or Oregon.
The number
Research win band 9–12 (median 10, E[wins] 10.15). Power rank 4. Research only.
Quick projection
Offense 1.58 / defense 1.48 — more balanced than Ole Miss. Bowl probability 0.993. Futures live on the futures artifact.
Roster snapshot
QB Darian Mensah, portal, not open. Packaged SP+ 2025. Next: Week 1 at Stanford.
What matters most
Whether the ACC slate stays as soft as the frozen board assumes. A 10.15 E[wins] is a schedule number. Power 1.53 is the talent number.
Schedule notes
Week 1 at STAN is on the official board. Miami’s win-total rank above Ohio State is not a G5-over-P4 inversion — both are Power-4, different paths.
Betting angles to track
Win-total markets that open at 10+ are inside this research band. Game-level: use Project Game for STAN, then Edge Board for live books only.
What would change this view
Mensah not starting; ACC slate adding a second top-15 road week; or a large Week 1 miss at Stanford that updates the offensive index.
Model note
KosEdge CFB Model · engine cfb-season-engine-v0.15-power-sot · N=10,000 · as_of 2026-08-31 · used_in_spread=false · KEI is a separate published line.