Bottom line
Notre Dame is the Independent that matters. Power #7 (1.502), E[wins] #2 (10.05, band 8–11). The win-total lead is schedule: Independent path plus a Week 1 Wisconsin game the board already prices as a home/neutral row. This is not a CFP selection model.
The number
Research win band 8–11 (median 10, E[wins] 10.05). Power rank 7. Research only.
Quick projection
Offense 1.64 / defense 1.37. Bowl probability 0.994. Futures live on the futures artifact.
Roster snapshot
QB CJ Carr, incumbent, not open. Lowest uncertainty in the Independent bucket (0.229). Packaged SP+ 2025. Next: Week 1 vs Wisconsin, neutral_site=true on the official slate.
What matters most
The Independent label in the SoT also contains leftover mappings (North Texas, Missouri, Toledo, etc.). Notre Dame is the only Independent power row in the top 20. Filter and conference preview call that out.
Schedule notes
Week 1 WIS is a Project Game deep-link. Remaining path is why 10.05 E[wins] can sit above Ohio State without claiming a better roster.
Betting angles to track
Track posted win totals against 8–11. Week 1 vs Wisconsin: research-fair project-game only — no PLAY/LEAN language.
What would change this view
Carr injury; a slate revision that adds two Power-4 road games; or the Independent mapping cleanup changing who else shares this bucket (does not change ND’s power index).
Model note
KosEdge CFB Model · engine cfb-season-engine-v0.15-power-sot · N=10,000 · as_of 2026-08-31 · used_in_spread=false · KEI is a separate published line.