Bottom line
Oregon is #2 in power (1.563) and #3 in E[wins] (9.69, band 8–11). The portal QB prior (Dante Moore) is already in the index — uncertainty 0.325 is higher than Ohio State’s 0.215, which is the honest early-season gap, not a hidden downgrade.
The number
Research win band 8–11 (median 10, E[wins] 9.69). Power rank 2. Research only.
Quick projection
Offense 1.65 / defense 1.47. Bowl probability 0.988. Futures live on the futures artifact.
Roster snapshot
QB Dante Moore, portal class, not open. Packaged SP+ 2025. Next: Week 1 home vs Boise State — a real G5 test, not an FCS placeholder.
What matters most
Week 1 vs Boise is the first live check on whether the #2 power row survives a competent G5 opponent. Project Game is the right surface; do not invent a spread here.
Schedule notes
Home vs BOISE is on the official Week 1 board. Oregon’s win-total rank sitting next to Ohio State is schedule-coherent, not a second rating.
Betting angles to track
Watch how books price ORE/BOISE versus the research-fair project-game once posted. Season win-total: compare the 8–11 band to the market when it exists. No lean is published.
What would change this view
Moore not starting; a large Week 1 offensive miss vs Boise; or Big Ten slate changes that add another top-15 road game.
Model note
KosEdge CFB Model · engine cfb-season-engine-v0.15-power-sot · N=10,000 · as_of 2026-08-31 · used_in_spread=false · KEI is a separate published line.