Bottom line
Frozen SoT still ranks Ohio State #1 in power (1.617) with the lowest early-season uncertainty among the top five. That is a talent claim, not a win-total claim — the post–Week-0 10,000-path board has the Buckeyes at 9.54 E[wins] (p10–p90 8–11), fifth in expected wins because the Big Ten slate is harder than ACC / Independent paths above them.
The number
Research win band 8–11 (median 10, E[wins] 9.54). Power rank 1. No market line is published here; used_in_spread=false.
Quick projection
Offense 1.65 / defense 1.59 on the composed index. Bowl probability 0.986 on the frozen slate. CFP / national-title percentages live on the futures artifact, not this preview.
Roster snapshot
QB Julian Sayin, class incumbent, not an open job. Efficiency source is packaged SP+ final 2025 (not a warehouse fill). Next: Week 1 home vs Ball State.
What matters most
Whether the dual-index lead holds after Week 1–3 actuals. The prior is 2025 SP+ plus roster/QB; a slow start against a soft opener would not, by itself, invert the power board.
Schedule notes
Week 1 BALL is on the official slate and opens in Project Game. Remaining Big Ten path is why E[wins] sits below Miami / Notre Dame / Oregon / Utah despite the #1 power rank.
Betting angles to track
Track market win totals vs the 8–11 research band after books post. Do not treat 9.54 as a bet. Week 1 vs Ball State is a research-fair project-game, not a PLAY.
What would change this view
Sayin injury or a multi-week offensive-index collapse; a warehouse-fill swap (this row is packaged, not filled); or a slate revision that adds/removes a Power-4 home game.
Model note
KosEdge CFB Model · engine cfb-season-engine-v0.15-power-sot · N=10,000 · as_of 2026-08-31 · used_in_spread=false · KEI is a separate published line.