Bottom line
USF is the honesty check. Power #42 (1.260) — not a top-10 talent row. Post–Week-0 E[wins] #15 (8.38, band 7–10) — no longer tied with Ohio State. Soft AAC path still helps the win total; power order stays OSU–ORE–MISS–MIA.
The number
Research win band 7–10 (median 8, E[wins] 8.38). Power rank 42. Win-total std is tighter than OSU’s on the closed board.
Quick projection
Offense 1.45 / defense 1.07 — the defensive index is why this is not a Power-4 row. Bowl probability 0.986. Futures live on the futures artifact.
Roster snapshot
QB KJ Cooper, incumbent, not open. Uncertainty 0.234 (tighter than several P4 portal jobs). Packaged SP+ 2025. Next: Week 1 home vs FIU.
What matters most
Do not read the win table as a power table. USF is no longer an 8.88=OSU E[wins] trap. Power order stays OSU–ORE–MISS–MIA.
Schedule notes
Week 1 FIU is on the official slate. AAC path is still the win-total story; cupcake saturation + smaller year-shock narrowed the band vs OSU.
Betting angles to track
If a win-total market prices USF like a top-10 talent, that is a research conflict to track — still not a PLAY. Game-level: Project Game vs FIU, then live books on Edge Board.
What would change this view
A Power-4 home-and-home landing on the official slate; Cooper injury; or a defensive-index update that pulls power out of the 40s.
Model note
KosEdge CFB Model · engine cfb-season-engine-v0.15-power-sot · N=10,000 · as_of 2026-08-31 · used_in_spread=false · KEI is a separate published line.