Bottom line
Utah is the Big 12’s top power row (#9 overall, 1.484) and #4 in E[wins] (9.63, band 8–11). Portal QB Devon Dampier is in the prior. Week 1 is FCS Idaho — the win-total is not being earned against that opener; it is the rest of the Big 12 path plus the power index.
The number
Research win band 8–11 (median 10, E[wins] 9.63). Power rank 9. Research only.
Quick projection
Offense 1.62 / defense 1.35. Bowl probability 0.988. Futures live on the futures artifact (natty % is a separate futures line, not KEI).
Roster snapshot
QB Devon Dampier, portal, not open. Uncertainty 0.315. Packaged SP+ 2025. Next: Week 1 home vs FCS Idaho (not a Project Game FBS row).
What matters most
First FBS test after the FCS opener. Until then, treat 9.63 E[wins] as a slate-sim output, not new information from Week 1.
Schedule notes
FCS:IDHO is on the official Week 1 board but is not an FBS-vs-FBS Project Game. Use Teams → next FBS opponent once posted, or open a manual matchup.
Betting angles to track
Do not invent a spread on Idaho. Season band 8–11 is the number to track when Big 12 win totals post. No lean.
What would change this view
Dampier not starting; a Big 12 slate add opposite Texas Tech / Arizona in the same month; or a large Week 2+ offensive miss.
Model note
KosEdge CFB Model · engine cfb-season-engine-v0.15-power-sot · N=10,000 · as_of 2026-08-31 · used_in_spread=false · KEI is a separate published line.