MODEL

Season Model

Model is research-fair (used_in_spread=false). KEI is the published line on Edge Board. Tag = KEI vs market.

MODEL research — Model is not the published handicap. KEI is the published line; Edge / Tag = KEI vs market.

← CFB Overview Model transparency

Open Project Game

Project Game

Any FBS matchup or Week 0–2 slate row — research-fair spread, total, WP, team totals, σ, and drivers.

Official slate

KosEdge W0–W2 artifact — ESPN primary, Odds API fact-check. Open a row in Project Game.

Season projections

Research expected wins on the official 889-game slate. CFP / natty omitted.

Power + Teams

136 official FBS rows — power, OFF/DEF, QB class, warehouse-fill labels.

Team previews

KosEdge house format. Research language. No writer byline.

Conference previews

Power 4 + Notre Dame / Independent note + AAC and Mountain West.

Fidelity

KosEdge official slate (ESPN + Odds API fact-check) + 136/136 roster overlay. Named ESPN QBs: — · warehouse fills labeled on Team DNA (not silent 50/50). Returning snap% and portal-out still proxies; coaching / HFA curated.

Official Slate

Official slate · KosEdge · sourced from ESPN, fact-checked vs The Odds API · as_of 2026-08-31

cfb-official-slate-v2-dual-20260831 · 86 Week 2 games (47 FBS–FBS) · 0 desk-confirmed · missing book listings show as unconfirmed, not invented

Week 0 (finals)Week 1 Week 2

Florida A&M Rattlers @ Miami Hurricanes
Thu, Sep 10, 8:00 PM ET · Home · ACC · FBS–FCS
Hard Rock Stadium
Project →
Villanova Wildcats @ Louisville Cardinals
Fri, Sep 11, 7:00 PM ET · Home · ACC · FBS–FCS
L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
Project →
Norfolk State Spartans @ Virginia Cavaliers
Fri, Sep 11, 7:00 PM ET · Home · ACC · FBS–FCS
Scott Stadium
Project →
Richmond Spiders @ NC State Wolfpack
Fri, Sep 11, 7:00 PM ET · Home · ACC · FBS–FCS

Live engine: cfb-season-engine-v0.15-power-sot

Slate

incomplete · — games

used_in_spread

false

Contract

Research fair · KEI is the published line

CFP / natty

omitted (stub)

Logged

0 · close 0 · final 0

ATS / SU

0-0 · SU 0-0

Avg CLV

—

Abs margin err

—

Proxied through Next.js BFF routes — browser never calls Railway with secrets. Season simulate stays heavy/API-capped; use Project Game for interactive eval. Performance strip reads /cfb/season-engine/performance. In-season efficiency updates (v0.9 foundation) ingest via /cfb/season-engine/in-season/* — preseason baseline preserved; early weeks move more than late.

Can do

· Roster / QB / unit composition → project-game
· Variable HFA + coaching week decay
· Early-season uncertainty inspectable

Approximate

· Packaged roster / QB / unit priors
· Win probs / spreads / totals
· Densified schedule paths

Cannot yet

· Live injury feed (packaged depth as_of only)
· Player box production path

Matchup	Kickoff (ET)	Score	Status	Site	Conf	Type
fcs:FAMU @ MIA	Thu, Sep 10, 8:00 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeHard Rock Stadium	ACC	FBS–FCS	Project →
fcs:VILL @ LOU	Fri, Sep 11, 7:00 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeL&N Federal Credit Union Stadium	ACC	FBS–FCS	Project →
fcs:NORF @ UVA	Fri, Sep 11, 7:00 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeScott Stadium	ACC	FBS–FCS	Project →
fcs:RICH @ NCSU	Fri, Sep 11, 7:00 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeCarter-Finley Stadium	ACC	FBS–FCS	Project →
RUT @ BC	Fri, Sep 11, 7:30 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeAlumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)	ACC	FBS–FBS	Project →
MIZZ @ KU	Fri, Sep 11, 8:00 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeDavid Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium	Big 12	FBS–FBS	Project →
fcs:CP @ SJSU	Sat, Sep 12, 12:00 AM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeCEFCU Stadium	Mountain West	FBS–FCS	Project →
fcs:MERC @ UNM	Sat, Sep 12, 12:00 AM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeUniversity Stadium (NM)	Mountain West	FBS–FCS	Project →
OU @ MICH	Sat, Sep 12, 12:00 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeMichigan Stadium	Big Ten	FBS–FBS	Project →
ASU @ TAMU	Sat, Sep 12, 12:00 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeKyle Field	SEC	FBS–FBS	Project →
WSU @ KSU	Sat, Sep 12, 12:00 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeBill Snyder Family Stadium	Big 12	FBS–FBS	Project →
ORE @ OKST	Sat, Sep 12, 12:00 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeBoone Pickens Stadium	Big 12	FBS–FBS	Project →
fcs:ETSU @ UNC	Sat, Sep 12, 12:00 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeKenan Stadium	ACC	FBS–FCS	Project →
ODU @ VT	Sat, Sep 12, 12:00 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeLane Stadium	ACC	FBS–FBS	Project →
WAKE @ PUR	Sat, Sep 12, 12:00 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeRoss-Ade Stadium	Big Ten	FBS–FBS	Project →
fcs:HOW @ IU	Sat, Sep 12, 12:00 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeMemorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)	Big Ten	FBS–FCS	Project →
PSU @ TEM	Sat, Sep 12, 12:00 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeLincoln Financial Field	AAC	FBS–FBS	Project →
USF @ ARMY	Sat, Sep 12, 12:00 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeMichie Stadium	AAC	FBS–FBS	Project →
APP @ ECU	Sat, Sep 12, 12:00 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeDowdy-Ficklen Stadium	AAC	FBS–FBS	Project →
fcs:WOF @ KENT	Sat, Sep 12, 12:00 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeZoeller Field at Dix Stadium	MAC	FBS–FCS	Project →
WKU @ UGA	Sat, Sep 12, 12:45 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeSanford Stadium	SEC	FBS–FBS	Project →
fcs:UTM @ WVU	Sat, Sep 12, 1:00 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeMilan Puskar Stadium	Big 12	FBS–FCS	Project →
fcs:COLG @ CMU	Sat, Sep 12, 1:00 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeKelly/Shorts Stadium	MAC	FBS–FCS	Project →
fcs:HC @ M-OH	Sat, Sep 12, 1:00 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeYager Stadium	MAC	FBS–FCS	Project →
fcs:STBK @ BALL	Sat, Sep 12, 2:00 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeScheumann Stadium	MAC	FBS–FCS	Project →
ALA @ UK	Sat, Sep 12, 3:30 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeKroger Field	SEC	FBS–FBS	Project →
MSST @ MINN	Sat, Sep 12, 3:30 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeHuntington Bank Stadium	Big Ten	FBS–FBS	Project →
fcs:WEB @ COLO	Sat, Sep 12, 3:30 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeFolsom Field	Big 12	FBS–FCS	Project →
UCF @ PITT	Sat, Sep 12, 3:30 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeAcrisure Stadium	ACC	FBS–FBS	Project →
ARI @ BYU	Sat, Sep 12, 3:30 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeLaVell Edwards Stadium	Big 12	FBS–FBS	Project →
CAL @ SYR	Sat, Sep 12, 3:30 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeJMA Wireless Dome	ACC	FBS–FBS	Project →
DUKE @ ILL	Sat, Sep 12, 3:30 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeGies Memorial Stadium	Big Ten	FBS–FBS	Project →
EMU @ MSU	Sat, Sep 12, 3:30 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeSpartan Stadium	Big Ten	FBS–FBS	Project →
MD @ CONN	Sat, Sep 12, 3:30 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomePratt & Whitney Stadium	Independent	FBS–FBS	Project →
UTAHST @ WASH	Sat, Sep 12, 3:30 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeHusky Stadium	Big Ten	FBS–FBS	Project →
RICE @ ND	Sat, Sep 12, 3:30 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeNotre Dame Stadium	Independent	FBS–FBS	Project →
UTSA @ TXST	Sat, Sep 12, 3:30 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeUFCU Stadium	Sun Belt	FBS–FBS	Project →
ULM @ UAB	Sat, Sep 12, 3:30 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeProtective Stadium	AAC	FBS–FBS	Project →
fcs:RMU @ AKR	Sat, Sep 12, 3:30 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeInfoCision Stadium	MAC	FBS–FCS	Project →
fcs:CCSU @ TOL	Sat, Sep 12, 3:30 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeGlass Bowl	MAC	FBS–FCS	Project →
fcs:SHU @ MASS	Sat, Sep 12, 3:30 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeWarren McGuirk Alumni Stadium	MAC	FBS–FCS	Project →
fcs:WAG @ JMU	Sat, Sep 12, 3:30 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeBridgeforth Stadium	Sun Belt	FBS–FCS	Project →
UNLV @ UNT	Sat, Sep 12, 3:45 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeDATCU Stadium	AAC	FBS–FBS	Project →
fcs:UCD @ SMU	Sat, Sep 12, 4:00 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeGerald J. Ford Stadium	ACC	FBS–FCS	Project →
fcs:UNCO @ WYO	Sat, Sep 12, 4:00 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeWar Memorial Stadium	Mountain West	FBS–FCS	Project →
fcs:ALST @ TROY	Sat, Sep 12, 4:00 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeVeterans Memorial Stadium (AL)	Sun Belt	FBS–FCS	Project →
DEL @ VAN	Sat, Sep 12, 4:15 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeFirstBank Stadium	SEC	FBS–FBS	Project →
fcs:CAM @ UF	Sat, Sep 12, 5:30 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeBen Hill Griffin Stadium	SEC	FBS–FCS	Project →
MEM @ BOISE	Sat, Sep 12, 6:00 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeAlbertsons Stadium	Pac-12	FBS–FBS	Project →
BUFF @ FIU	Sat, Sep 12, 6:00 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomePitbull Stadium	CUSA	FBS–FBS	Project →
JVST @ OHIO	Sat, Sep 12, 6:00 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomePeden Stadium	MAC	FBS–FBS	Project →
fcs:GWEB @ LIB	Sat, Sep 12, 6:00 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeWilliams Stadium (VA)	CUSA	FBS–FCS	Project →
fcs:MONM @ WMU	Sat, Sep 12, 6:30 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeWaldo Stadium	MAC	FBS–FCS	Project →
fcs:TOW @ SCAR	Sat, Sep 12, 7:00 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeWilliams-Brice Stadium	SEC	FBS–FCS	Project →
TENN @ GT	Sat, Sep 12, 7:00 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeBobby Dodd Stadium	ACC	FBS–FBS	Project →
fcs:WCU @ CIN	Sat, Sep 12, 7:00 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeNippert Stadium	Big 12	FBS–FCS	Project →
fcs:SOU @ HOU	Sat, Sep 12, 7:00 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeTDECU Stadium	Big 12	FBS–FCS	Project →
BGSU @ NEB	Sat, Sep 12, 7:00 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeMemorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE)	Big Ten	FBS–FBS	Project →
fcs:SUU @ CSU	Sat, Sep 12, 7:00 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeCanvas Stadium	Pac-12	FBS–FCS	Project →
TLSA @ SHSU	Sat, Sep 12, 7:00 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeElliott T. Bowers Stadium	CUSA	FBS–FBS	Project →
fcs:ILST @ NIU	Sat, Sep 12, 7:00 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeHuskie Stadium	MAC	FBS–FCS	Project →
USA @ TULN	Sat, Sep 12, 7:00 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeYulman Stadium	AAC	FBS–FBS	Project →
fcs:WES @ ARST	Sat, Sep 12, 7:00 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeCentennial Bank Stadium	Sun Belt	FBS–FCS	Project →
GAST @ KENNESAW	Sat, Sep 12, 7:00 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeWalens Family Field at Fifth Third Stadium	CUSA	FBS–FBS	Project →
MTSU @ MRSH	Sat, Sep 12, 7:00 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeJoan C. Edwards Stadium	Sun Belt	FBS–FBS	Project →
fcs:LIN @ MOST	Sat, Sep 12, 7:00 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeRobert W. Plaster Stadium	CUSA	FBS–FCS	Project →
SDSU @ UCLA	Sat, Sep 12, 7:15 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeRose Bowl	Big Ten	FBS–FBS	Project →
fcs:WIU @ WIS	Sat, Sep 12, 7:15 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeCamp Randall Stadium	Big Ten	FBS–FCS	Project →
USM @ AUB	Sat, Sep 12, 7:30 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeJordan-Hare Stadium	SEC	FBS–FBS	Project →
OSU @ TEX	Sat, Sep 12, 7:30 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeDKR-Texas Memorial Stadium	SEC	FBS–FBS	Project →
TTU @ ORST	Sat, Sep 12, 7:30 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeReser Stadium	Pac-12	FBS–FBS	Project →
ISU @ IOWA	Sat, Sep 12, 7:30 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeKinnick Stadium	Big Ten	FBS–FBS	Project →
GASO @ CLEM	Sat, Sep 12, 7:30 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeMemorial Stadium (Clemson, SC)	ACC	FBS–FBS	Project →
NAVY @ FAU	Sat, Sep 12, 7:30 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeFlagler Credit Union Stadium	AAC	FBS–FBS	Project →
LT @ LSU	Sat, Sep 12, 7:30 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeTiger Stadium (LA)	SEC	FBS–FBS	Project →
fcs:FOR @ CCU	Sat, Sep 12, 7:30 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeBrooks Stadium (SC)	Sun Belt	FBS–FCS	Project →
CHAR @ MISS	Sat, Sep 12, 7:45 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeVaught-Hemingway Stadium	SEC	FBS–FBS	Project →
fcs:PV @ BAY	Sat, Sep 12, 8:00 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeMcLane Stadium	Big 12	FBS–FCS	Project →
fcs:GRAM @ TCU	Sat, Sep 12, 8:00 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeAmon G. Carter Stadium	Big 12	FBS–FCS	Project →
fcs:TXSO @ UTEP	Sat, Sep 12, 9:00 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeSun Bowl	CUSA	FBS–FCS	Project →
fcs:NDSU @ AFA	Sat, Sep 12, 10:00 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeFalcon Stadium	Mountain West	FBS–FCS	Project →
ARK @ UTAH	Sat, Sep 12, 10:15 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeRice-Eccles Stadium	Big 12	FBS–FBS	Project →
fcs:SAC @ FRES	Sat, Sep 12, 10:30 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeValley Children's Stadium	Pac-12	FBS–FCS	Project →
fcs:MTST @ NEV	Sat, Sep 12, 10:30 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeMackay Stadium	Mountain West	FBS–FCS	Project →
UL @ USC	Sat, Sep 12, 11:00 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeLos Angeles Memorial Coliseum	Big Ten	FBS–FBS	Project →
NMSU @ HAW	Sat, Sep 12, 11:59 PM	—	Unconfirmed	HomeClarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex	Mountain West	FBS–FBS	Project →

Matchup

Kickoff (ET)

Score

Status

Site

Conf

Type

fcs:FAMU @ MIA

Thu, Sep 10, 8:00 PM

—

Unconfirmed

HomeHard Rock Stadium

ACC

FBS–FCS